SUBSCRIBE | DEADLINES | HOME | FEATURE STORIES

Posted August 9, 2018


___________________________
Trade

WTOI suggests trade momentum softening further in third quarter of 2018

Trade expansion will likely slow further in the third quarter of 2018 according to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) released on 9 August. The most recent WTOI reading of 100.3 is below the previous value of 101.8 and just above the baseline value of 100 for the index, signalling an easing of trade growth in the coming months in line with medium-term trends. This loss of momentum reflects weakness in component indices including export orders and automobile production and sales, which may be responding to the ratcheting up of trade tensions.



The latest results remain broadly in line with the WTO's most recent trade forecast issued on 12 April 2018, which predicted a slowing of merchandise trade volume growth from 4.7% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2018. Rising trade tensions continue to pose risks to the trade forecast and will be monitored closely going forward.

The moderation in the overall WTOI index was driven by export orders (97.2), which have declined steadily over the course of the year, and automobile production and sales (98.1), which have risen slightly recently but remain below trend. The indices for air freight (100.9) and container port throughput (102.2) remain above trend but growth momentum in both appears to be past its peak. Electronic components stayed above trend (102.2) while agricultural raw materials (100.1) moved from below trend to on trend.

Designed to provide "real time" information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends, the WTOI is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future. Its main contribution is to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth. As such, it complements trade statistics and forecasts from the WTO and other organizations. Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the reverse. The direction of change reflects momentum compared with the previous month.










exchangemagazine.com is distributed twice weekly; Tuesday and Thursday


Not a Subscriber? Receive more articles on business issues
Sent directly to your email in-box.


contact us

Publisher is Exchange Business Communication Inc.
No part of this article may be reproduced without written permission from the publisher.
Email Publisher

ISSN 0824-45
Copyright, 2018

Share Your Story: pressrelease @ exchangemagazine.com
Expand Your Reach:
advertise @ exchangemagazine.com
Publisher: Exchange Business Communication Inc., PO Box 248, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Email Editor

Content published on this site represents the opinion of the individual, organization and/or source provider. Exchangemagazine.com is a online daily journal of Exchange Business Communication Inc. (1997) Publishers of Exchange Magazine est. 1983. Privacy Policy. Copyright of Exchange produced editorial is the copyright of Exchange Business Communications Inc. 2018. Submitted editorials, comments and releases are copyright of respective source(s).