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Global Risks 2007 report highlights disconnects between global risks and mitigation
Switzerland - The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks report highlighted expert opinion that 16 of the 23 global risks facing the world have worsened over the past 12 months. The report also found that there is a growing disconnect between the potential disruption caused by global risks such as climate change and international terrorism, and the world’s ability to manage and mitigate them.
In spite of growing awareness of the correlation between risks and their impact, they continue to deteriorate. There is also a growing interconnection between global risks, which the report demonstrated through the use of several plausible scenarios. These scenarios highlighted the difficult-to-manage interconnections that make risk mitigation so urgent, and so difficult.
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World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007 Ends with Concrete Proposals to Tackle Global Issues
Switzerland - The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007 closed on 28 January following five days of discussions with concrete developments on global challenges. Davos, as E. Neville Isdell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of The Coca-Cola Company, put it, is the “epicentre of engagement.” The Meeting’s outcomes amply illustrated the unique approach that the World Economic Forum brings to the global agenda through the participation of government, business, media, academic, and civil society leaders from across countries, continents and cultures. This Davos community of leaders came together to move from mere awareness to concrete action on issues such as climate change and sustainability.
The Shifting Power Equation' at the World
Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007
in Davos, Switzerland, January 24, 2007.
more...
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DENMARK CLIMBS TO THE TOP IN THE RANKINGS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’S GLOBAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REPORT 2006-2007
Canada at 11 spot - Sweden, Singapore and Finland follow, while the United States loses ground in networked readiness, falling 6 places to 7th position
Geneva, Switzerland – For the first time, Denmark tops the rankings of The Global Information Technology Report 2006-2007’s “Networked Readiness Index”, as a culmination of an upward trend since 2003. Denmark’s outstanding levels of networked readiness have to do with the country’s excellent regulatory environment, coupled with a clear government leadership and vision in leveraging ICT for growth and promoting ICT penetration and usage.
With record coverage of 122 economies worldwide and published for the sixth consecutive year, The Global Information Technology Report (GITR) has become the world’s most respected assessment of the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the development process and the competitiveness of nations. The Networked Readiness Index (NRI) measures the propensity of countries to leverage the opportunities offered by ICT for development and increased competitiveness. It also establishes a broad international framework mapping out the enabling factors of such capacity.
The Report is produced by the World Economic Forum in cooperation with INSEAD, the leading international business school, and is sponsored this year by Cisco.
“Leveraging ICT is increasingly becoming an essential instrument for countries and national stakeholders to ensure continued prosperity for their people. Nordic countries have shown how an early focus on education, innovation and promotion of ICT penetration and diffusion is a winning strategy for increased networked readiness and competitiveness. Denmark, in particular, has benefited from very effective government e-leadership, reflected in early liberalization of the telecommunications sector, a first-rate regulatory framework and large availability of e-government services,” said Irene Mia, Senior Economist of the Global Competitiveness Network at the World Economic Forum and co-editor of the Report. Watch the full 7-minute interview here (by clicking on the picture):
“In recent years, the world has witnessed the power of ICT in revolutionizing the business and economic landscape and empowering individuals, while fostering social networks and virtual communities. Recognizing the importance of ICT as a driver of growth and prosperity, the World Economic Forum – jointly with INSEAD since 2002 – has produced The Global Information Technology Report each year since 2001, assessing the progress of networked readiness in over 100 economies and providing an authoritative instrument for facilitating public-private dialogue, whereby policy-makers, business leaders and other stakeholders can evaluate progress on a continual basis,” said Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
Under the theme, “Connecting to the Networked Economy”, The Global Information Technology Report appears at a critical juncture in the evolving role of ICT in the world economy, when access to the global network is increasingly perceived as an important cornerstone for the development of economies and societies. In line with the World Economic Forum’s sustained efforts to expand the geographical coverage of the Report, this year seven new countries from diverse regions of the world (mainly Asia and Africa) have been included in the sample.
“It’s no longer debatable as to whether or not the global economy will become networked – the vast majority of industries are increasingly adopting networked business processes – and the discussion now focuses not on if but how we get connected to maximize the benefits to business and society," said John Chambers, President and CEO of Cisco.
The Networked Readiness Index examines the preparedness of countries to use ICT effectively on three dimensions: the general business, regulatory and infrastructure environment for ICT; the readiness of the three key stakeholders individuals, businesses and governments to use and benefit from ICT; and their actual usage of the latest information and communication technology available.
Soumitra Dutta, Chaired Professor of Business and Technology, Dean of External Relations at INSEAD and co-editor of the Report, explained: “The Networked Readiness Index (NRI) provides a snapshot of countries’ weaknesses and strengths with regard to ICT development and capacity to leverage the latter for increased competitiveness, thus offering policy-makers and business leaders a neutral platform for discussion and a useful tool in drawing a roadmap towards increased networked readiness.” Watch the full 7-minute interview here.
Download the full Networked Readiness Index 2006 (PDF ) |
World Bank - IMF Says Palestinians' Economy Faces More Dark Times This Year, Needs More Aid
“The Palestinian economy will hollow out further in 2007, which will
increase its dependency on foreign aid, the International Monetary Fund
and the World Bank said Monday in a joint report.
Although reliable figures are difficult to obtain, the report said, real
gross domestic product in 2006 in the West Bank and Gaza was estimated to
have fallen within a range of 5 to 10 percent. This is less than was
feared, the report said, but remained almost 40 percent below its level
before the second anti-Israeli intefadeh began in 1999. … Among
contributing factors to the Palestinians' severe economic decline are the
international diplomatic and financial isolation of the former Hamas-led
government and Israel's withholding of hundreds of millions of dollars in
taxes it has collected for the Palestinians. …” [The Associated
Press/Factiva]
Reuters notes that “… The Fund said the fall would have been more dramatic
if it were not for foreign aid, which was routed through the office of
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas… . Funds were also ferried across the
Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt… . …”
[Reuters/Factiva]
AFP reports that “… By the end of 2006, 75 percent of households in the
Gaza Strip were considered poor, compared with 52 percent just nine months
earlier. One-third of Gaza's labor force was out of work. However,
Palestinians found ways to deal with the downturn, selling off assets,
turning to family members living abroad and increasingly depending on
foreign aid, which more than doubled in 2006 despite an international
boycott on providing direct funding to the Hamas-led government. …”
[Agence France Presse/Factiva]
The BBC writes that “… The IMF recommends that a new government should
reduce the wage bill, improve the collection of utility bills and
completely end subsidies for petrol products. In addition, the report says
a recovery of private economic activity ‘would greatly ease the adjustment
process’ by broadening the tax base, creating job opportunities and
absorbing government workers. It found that the number of government
employees increased as did their wages over the period, further adding to
governmental costs. …” [The BBC]
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World Bank Study Calls For Opening Gaza-Egypt Border To Palestinian Exports
“A World Bank study released Monday says goods from Gaza should be allowed
to move through the border with Egypt, in a boost to the economy of the
impoverished coastal strip.
Currently, Gaza's only trade link is through Israel, but cumbersome
security checks have turned that crossing into a bottleneck, with only a
few dozen truckloads being exported every day. … The World Bank study says
Palestinian exports through Rafah could begin once security procedures and
a transit protocol between the Palestinian and Egyptian governments have
been worked out. The World Bank and the European Commission are ready to
give technical help, the paper said. … The World Bank study says allowing
exports through Rafah could reduce the Karni bottleneck and eventually
improve operations there.” [The Associated Press (03/26)/Factiva]
Reuters notes that “… Virtually all trade with Gaza is restricted to the
Karni crossing with Israel. Limited operating hours at Karni and Israel's
frequent closure of the crossing have reduced the flow of goods and driven
up prices. Palestinian exports have plummeted to their lowest levels since
1994 because of the Karni closures and a year-old Western ban on direct
aid to the Hamas-led government, the World Bank report said. The value of
Palestinian exports in 2006 was nearly 30 percent below the level 10 years
ago. …
The report [further] said European monitors at Rafah were prepared to
oversee the movement of goods. The World Bank said increased trade was the
key to reviving the Palestinian economy. Trade accounts for about 85
percent to 90 percent of the Palestinian gross domestic product.” [Reuters
(03/26)/Factiva]
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Worldwide survey: Business can no longer afford to ignore Chinese market
LONDON, UK - A survey of over 700 business leaders, government officials, leading academics and futurists from across 60 countries and five continents warns that, for business to thrive in the changing global economy, China must become a key element in all future business strategies.
The study – conducted by Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) and Fast Future - is the first worldwide survey to gather views and expectations of China’s global impact over the period to 2020.
Fast Future’s Rohit Talwar, author of the study, said that the findings in The Future of China’s Economy, The Path to 2020 – Opportunities, Challenges and Uncertainties “is a ‘wake up call’ to the Western business world. To thrive in today’s changing global economy, he writes, business must including China in all future business decisions. But, he added, while businesses in Europe and North America fear the impact China will have on their businesses, they are ill-prepared to act and lag behind their Asian counterparts on their ambitions for the China market.
“Many still seem to hope the ‘China issue’ will go away – but hope is not a strategy. Western businesses need to recognise the opportunities that this powerful market presents and face up to the challenges. Business leaders are clearly worried about the impact China will have in their own markets and on western business practices. However fear of the unknown, a lack of market knowledge, language barriers, limited cultural understanding and concerns about corruption and bureaucracy are leading to hesitancy and inertia. The way forward is to start developing true market insight, take the first steps and learn by doing. “
David Smith, Joint CEO of GFF said: “Even if you don’t believe there are opportunities for you in the Chinese market, you have to be prepared to respond to China’s growing global footprint. Chinese firms have increasingly ambitious overseas expansion plans and want to prove themselves in global markets. At the same time your competitors may be sourcing or manufacturing in China and taking advantage of the cost savings to compete with you in your domestic markets. Businesses of all sizes need to be clear on how they will respond.” The message, he added, is clear: Western businesses can no longer afford to ignore the Chinese market.
Key Findings
There are few doubts in the business world that China will become a dominant global economic force.
30% believe China’s Economy will overtake that of the US by 2025 and 73% believe it will happen by 2035.
89% of respondents think international companies will consider it essential to be listed on a Chinese stock market.
78% believe that the Chinese stock market will overtake the New York Stock Exchange in size.
60% believe Chinese companies could become the largest grouping amongst the Fortune Global 500 by 2040.
There is a clear expectation that China’s market power will transform the way the West does business.
45% of respondents think Chinese culture and business practices will enter western corporate life.
48% believe key industry and market decisions will be taken in China
70% of respondents believe it will be considered normal for US and European workers to be employed by Chinese owned companies by 2030
Europe and North America are lagging behind their Asian counterparts in their plans for the Chinese market:
65% of respondents claim to have had no direct Chinese business experience.
65% of respondents receive no revenues or profits from China.
5% of respondents expect China to increasingly become the launch market for new products and services,
43% of Indian respondents were already generating revenues from the Chinese Market, compared to only 25% from North America and 34% from Europe.
By 2020, 25% of Indian respondents expect to earn over 40% of profits from China, compared to just 8% of Europeans and only 12% of North Americans.
Download the executive summary, http://www.thegff.com/Publisher/Article.aspx?id=52386
Rohit is an experienced futurist and futures researcher; he has spoken, consulted and undertaken research internationally on five continents. He has worked across a wide range of industries and his expertise lies in helping industries understand and address the forces that will shape their Future. Rohit ran the UK government’s largest futures research programme for two years and delivered three major studies on global trends to 2050 for Defra and the Office of Science and Technology. He also facilitated the expert consultation for the MoD’s Strategic Trends programme.
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World Bank Fully Endorses Anti-corruption Strategy
“World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz on Tuesday declared the bank's board
of member countries had fully endorsed a controversial strategy for
tackling corruption in developing countries… ‘We can say clearly that the
board of directors unanimously endorsed the bank's new governance and
anti-corruption strategy,’ Wolfowitz told reporters in a joint news
conference with Germany's Executive Director, Eckhard Deutscher, who is
also dean of the board… Wolfowitz also said the revised strategy would
ensure the bank scaled up its engagement with watchdog grass-roots groups,
parliamentarians and the media, while also working with the political
leadership to root out corruption in all areas.” [Reuters]
“The revised strategy backed by the board preserves Mr Wolfowitz’s
emphasis on corruption and governance as central to development and
poverty reduction… Developing countries also insisted upon and secured a
heightened emphasis on what Mr Wolfowitz called the ‘supply side of
corruption’ in the form of bribe-paying companies based in the
industrialised world, and a commitment by the Bank to help make it easier
to recover money stolen by corrupt officials and held in developed country
banks…” [The Financial Times]
The New York Times notes: “…the World Bank committed itself Tuesday to a
new strategy to combat corruption in its $20 billion annual loan program…
‘I think we now have the framework that will help the bank achieve the
main objective of a governance strategy, which is strengthening the
ability to help the poor escape poverty,’ Mr. Wolfowitz told reporters
after the board meeting. ‘The strategy is focused on broad principles to
be applied in a consistent manner while remaining flexible to the needs of
specific countries…’ Bank officials said that after extensive
consultation, the document adopted Tuesday committed the Bank to remaining
engaged with recipient countries, even when corruption forced the Bank to
deal with independent groups in the country rather than with the
government itself. On the other hand, they said the new strategy continues
the Bank’s policy of not dealing with any group in a country if the
leadership of that country objects.” [The New York Times]
AP writes: “The World Bank has revamped its strategy on governance and
anti-corruption policies as part of its effort to help the world's poor
escape poverty and to promote economic growth, Paul Wolfowitz, the
president of the lending institution, said Tuesday…‘There was clear
unanimity, no doubt about it,’ he said… He said Tuesday the Bank remained
engaged in projects in countries like Congo and Liberia, which are both
emerging from periods of civil strife without accountable government
institutions to handle such projects as road-building.” [The Associated
Press/Factiva]
AFP adds that “… Details of the new campaign are yet to be fleshed out,
but the strategy emphasizes the need to engage more with civil society,
the private sector and the media in the World Bank's client countries…..
‘We have to get involved. But in getting involved, we bring money, but we
also need to work with governments to improve governance,’ he [Wolfowitz]
said… ‘We can't sit around and wait three or five years for the governance
situation to be perfect. We have to produce some results and do it in a
way that keeps track of where the money's going…’ Eckhard Deutscher,
Germany's representative on the World Bank board, underscored ‘good
relations’ between management and directors over the latest version of the
corruption strategy. ‘Now, a lot of work still lies before the
implementation. I must say I'm happy that we came to such a broad, common
conclusion,’ the German official said.” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
Agencia EFE writes that “… In September, the Development Committee, a
joint World Bank/International Monetary Fund forum gave a green light to
Wolfowitz’s anticorruption plan requesting that consultations take place.
The revised plan will be resubmitted to the Development Committee,
according to Wolfowitz, who further stated that the implementation of the
program will begin now [with a view to putting its provisions into
practice when the Bank's fiscal year ends in June].” [Agencia EFE/Factiva]
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BUSINESSES URGED TO TACKLE TUBERCULOSIS TO AVOID DERAILING GLOBAL HIV/AIDS EFFORTS
On World TB Day this March 24, we are reminded that that 9 million people develop active TB every year and the disease causes 1.7 million deaths annually. The Global Health Initiative (GHI) of the World Economic Forum urges businesses to step up their response to avoid serious economic and social implications.
Geneva , Switzerland , 21 March 2007 – TB continues to pose a major risk to health throughout the world today. New factors like the emergence of drug resistant forms of TB and the incidence of TB infection in AIDS patients are making the fight against TB increasingly difficult. Aside from the clinical challenges, the management of these new factors poses a significant challenge to business today. A report of the GHI found that one-third of businesses worldwide expect TB to have a negative impact on their business over the next five years. Businesses need to rapidly scale up their response and recognize the critical need to invest in new and innovative tools to fight this disease.
"The cumulative productivity loss of individual and business earnings from TB, independent of the impact of HIV/AIDS, is estimated to have a global economic impact of about US$ 12-16 billion every year," said Francesca Boldrini, Director, Global Health Initiative. "By using the workplace as a means to communicate and treat employees, businesses can make an enormous difference to the community and the fight against HIV/AIDS and TB," she added.
TB is a leading cause of death among people who are HIV-positive. HIV undermines the immune system and therefore someone who is HIV-positive is up to 20 times more likely to become sick with TB than someone who is HIV-negative. In countries with a high adult HIV prevalence, the rates of new TB cases have more than quadrupled since 1990. Specifically, 70% of all people living with HIV/AIDS will contract TB in their lifetime and one third of these will die as a result of TB.
"TB represents a major threat to public health with devastating consequences. It demands massive new investment to strengthen current systems for TB treatment and hasten the development of new TB tools," said Jorge Sampaio, President of Portugal and UN Special Envoy to Stop TB. "It is in the interest of every government and business to support the rapid scale-up of TB control if we are to overcome this growing threat," he added.
Companies have been able to make a significant contribution to the fight against the disease through workplace programmes but research shows that only 30% of companies with HIV/AIDS programmes in place also have TB programmes to work in synergy with these programmes. These combined programmes can really help companies protect their employees and their families from the ravages of these diseases. Experience shows that adopting these kinds of programmes can make all the difference.
The GHI works closely with companies all over the world to assist them with the development and implementation of these programmes, leveraging its network across the public and private sectors and its experience of using the workplace as a means to protect at-risk communities.
When Heineken started its HIV-treatment programme in 2001 in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the impact on mortality was immediate. But data showed that those HIV-infected people still dying were suffering from TB. “This prompted us to reinvigorate the TB detection and treatment programme. The workplace provides an ideal situation for early detection and for excellent follow up of TB patients,” said Dr Stefaan Van der Borght, Medical Adviser, Heineken, Netherlands. "As long as no resistance has been detected, cure rates will have to approach 100%. To be able to sustain a workplace base programme, cooperation and understanding with the National TB programme is a must."
Programmes such as these highlight the critical role businesses can play in the fight against TB. This role is becoming increasingly urgent as the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its relationship with TB is becoming devastatingly clear. This situation is a heavy burden on business, disrupting work flow, reducing productivity and increasing both direct costs related to care and treatment and indirect costs, such as the replacement and retraining of workers. With greater TB and HIV/AIDS workplace management in areas most in need, business can accelerate the response to this rising epidemic.
We call on more business leaders to take up this challenge and get involved.
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CJPME CALLS FOR CANADA TO RECOGNIZE THE NEW PALESTINIAN UNITY GOVERNMENT AND END AID EMBARGO
MONTREAL – Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East (CJPME) is calling the Canadian government to recognize the newly formed Palestinian “Unity Government” and mitigate the suffering of the Palestinian population by re-establishing Canadian aid programs to the Palestinian Authority (PA.)
Already the new Unity Government is receiving international recognition, with Norway taking the lead in accepting its legitimacy. The new Hamas-Fatah coalition government won overwhelming approval Saturday within the Palestinian Legislative Council, and is represented by a reformist cabinet made up of members such as Finance Minister Salam Fayyad and the non-Hamas Foreign Minister Ziad Abu Amr.
CJPME also calls on Canada to pressure Israel to release a year’s worth of withheld Palestinian tax revenues amounting to C$720 million. This tax transfer, which Israel unilaterally ceased in January, 2006, was established as part of the Oslo II agreement, and traditionally reflected about half of the PA’s monthly revenue. The receipt of this transfer would enable the PA to start back-paying some of the salary of the government’s 161,000 employees, and would address the devastating poverty in the occupied Palestinian territories.
CJPME has always advocated adherence to international law, respect for previous negotiated agreements, and the renunciation of violence by all parties in the Middle East. CJPME has also pushed for equal expectations of all in the Middle East. “If we talk about respect for previous agreements, then Canada must insist that Israel reinstate the tax transfers,” says Thomas Woodley of CJPME.
“By supporting and recognizing the new Palestinian Unity Government and by ending its aid embargo to the Palestinian people, Canada would start to re-establish its credibility in the region. Canada should encourage moderation and stability in the region, and must encourage both Israelis and Palestinians to work towards a just and lasting peace,” says Woodley.
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World Brief - Posted March 19, 2007
The Ugandan government is negotiating with the World Bank on an early
start of the construction of the 250 MW Bujagali hydropower project, a key
step to salvage the country from the severe power shortage nationwide.
[Xinhua (China)/Factiva]
The Independent Evaluation Group, an arm of the World Bank, has begun a
preliminary evaluation of Nigeria’s economy. The three-week mission will
be inspecting World Bank sponsored projects and programs in Lagos and
least two or three other states, in addition to assessing activities of
Core Federal Ministries such as Finance and Health. This would be followed
by a more detailed evaluation of the country's economic atmosphere in
July. [Daily Trust (Nigeria, All Africa)/Factiva]
Namibia's Finance Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amathila said on Thursday the
country had achieved a budget surplus of 2.1 percent of GDP for the
2006-07 fiscal year, well above its projected surplus of 0.3 percent.
Namibia's economy grew by an estimated 4.6 percent in 2006-07, driven
mainly by mining, farming and fishing; inflation stood at 5.1 percent,
while a strong current account surplus was also recorded, said.
[Reuters/Factiva]
Solomon Island Minister for Foreign Affairs Patterson Oti has met with
World Bank Vice President James Adams to discuss World Banks support for
the country’s reforms on energy, rural development and telecommunication
sectors. [PACNEWS (Australia)/Factiva]
Unemployment in Indonesia could rise sharply in 2007 as its labor force
swells by more than two million and people left jobless by disasters seek
work. Indonesian Minister of Manpower and Transmigration Erman Soeparno
said some 2.3 million people will be added to the labor force this year,
the state Antara News Agency reported. Many will join the ranks of
Indonesia's unemployed, estimated by Soeparno at 10.9 million people,
unless a substantial number of new jobs are created. [Agence France
Presse/Factiva]
The World Bank on Thursday urged Albania to restructure its public
spending to back sustainable growth and help reduce poverty. A World
Bank-prepared Public Expenditure and Institutional Review report says the
ways in which the country's public sector finances itself and spends
resources carries risks for Albania's fiscal stability. [SeeNews
(Bulgaria)/Factiva]
World Bank and British Department for International Development signed a
trust fund agreement for Albania to provide technical assistance in order
to implement recommendations of the Restructuring of Public Expenditures
to ensure a sustainable economic development report. [Albanian-ATA English
News Service/Factiva]
Kyrgyzstan's government has decided not to join the Heavily Indebted Poor
Country (HIPC) Initiative and to rely on its own forces and resources; the
International Monetary Fund is ready to continue to cooperate with the
government on economic development and problem-solving, by providing
assistance to Kyrgyzstan, despite its government's decision not to join
the HIPC Initiative. [The Times of Central Asia (Australia)/Factiva]
Croatia must cut public spending even more than planned and improve
business environment to attract more investment ahead of its EU entry, an
International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday. Croatia's ruling
conservatives, who embarked on fiscal tightening when they took office in
late 2003, set the budget deficit at 2.8 percent of gross domestic product
this year, when they face a general election, probably in November.
[Reuters/Factiva]
The World Bank does not expect Turkey to relax fiscal and monetary
policies in 2007 because of a general election, while a recent sell-off
showed Turkey can handle financial market fluctuations it said on
Thursday. The Bank's Country Director in Turkey, Ulrich Zachau, also told
Reuters in an interview that social security reform was critical for
Turkey and he hoped a modified reform package could proceed in July.
[Reuters/Factiva]
The World Bank's Board of Directors on Thursday approved two loans to
Colombia for a total of $194.8 million to support a nationwide poverty
reduction program and improve the country's infrastructure services.
[Xinhua (China)/Factiva]
Terming the progress made by Afghanistan in the post-Taliban era as
remarkable, World Bank Country Director, Alastair McKechnie, in an
interview with Pajhwok Afghan News also said that the World Bank this year
was expected to increase its assistance to Afghanistan to $300 million, as
against $240 million last year. [Asia in Focus (Australia)/Factiva]
Belgium will join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and
contribute by $650,000 to support governance in natural resources rich
countries said the Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Karel De Gucht on
Thursday during the closing of a two-day conference on improving
governance and the fight against corruption in Brussels. [Agence Belga
(Belgium]/Factiva]
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Montenegro Seals Pact On Future EU Membership
Montenegro Seals Pact On Future EU Membership “Montenegro took its first
step towards EU membership by initialing a stabilization and association
agreement (SAA) on Thursday, less than a year since it became independent.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and Montenegrin Prime Minister
Zeljko Sturanovic sealed the agreement after the tiny Adriatic country
completed a final round of technical negotiations in December. ‘This is a
step forward towards Montenegro's membership in the EU,’ Rehn said after a
ceremony held at a government villa in the capital Podgorica. A formal
signing of the accord is expected in the coming months as it has to be
approved by all of the bloc's 27 members as well as European Commission,
in charge of EU enlargement. …” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
AP notes that once the agreement has been formally ratified in the
Montenegrin and EU member states' parliaments so that it can be formally
signed and implemented, “Montenegro will then have to implement a set of
reforms, approve a new constitution and tackle rampant corruption before
it can be invited to become a member of the 27-nation bloc. The process is
likely to take at least two to three years. Montenegro started pre-entry
negotiations with the EU in October 2005, while it was part of a state
union with Serbia. However, the EU talks were suspended shortly after
because of Belgrade's failure to arrest Serb war crimes suspects sought by
a UN war crimes tribunal. After becoming independent in June last year,
Montenegro resumed the talks with the EU, pledging to work on the
necessary pro-Western reform.” [The Associated Press/Factiva]
Reuters reports that “… In a Thursday editorial in daily Vijesti, Rehn
wrote that Montenegro should strengthen its institutions and the EU will
watch closely whether the legal system respects ‘the basic principles of
independence, efficiency and responsibility.’ Montenegro would also get
EUR30 million a year to help with reforms, Rehn said… Among neighboring
states, Albania has signed its SAA but is seen as having a long way to go
on reforms. Macedonia became an official EU candidate in December 2005,
but has been given no date for accession talks. Croatia started talks in
October 2005. It hopes to join ex-Yugoslav Slovenia, the region's first EU
member, by 2010.” [Reuters/Factiva]
Meanwhile, Xinhua reports that “Serbia congratulated on Thursday its
neighbor Montenegro's initialing of the pre-membership agreement with the
EU, the Foreign Ministry said. Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic sent
the congratulation to his Montenegrin counterpart Milan Rocen on the
initialing of the SAA Thursday in the Montenegrin capital, said a
statement by the ministry. …” [Xinhua (China)/Factiva]
SeeNews adds that “… Serbia's association talks remain suspended until the
government in Belgrade locates and delivers to justice the most wanted
indictee, former Bosnian Serb army commander Ratko Mladic. The country got
nod from the EU that its talks might be restarted if the new government
that is expected to come to power in Belgrade proves full commitment and
takes steps to effectively cooperate with the tribunal in the Hague. …”
[SeeNews (Bulgaria)/Factiva]
In related news, Reuters reports that “the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) urged Serbia on Thursday to abandon a $2 billion investment plan
intended to improve infrastructure, health and education and turn its
budget deficit into a surplus. The advice was directed at the government
that eventually emerges from laborious coalition talks. … The lender
advised Serbia to pursue structural reforms and privatizations, strengthen
competition and fight corruption, but above all tighten its fiscal
policies. …” [Reuters/Factiva]
AFP further notes that “Serbia will pay back in full on Thursday its debt
of $250 million owed to the IMF, central bank governor Radovan Jelasic
said. … Jelasic said, however, that he did not expect the Fund to look on
Serbia favorably in a report that it is expected to issue following an IMF
team's visit to the Balkan country last week. Its main areas of concern
would be high public sector spending and slowdowns in reforms to the
economy and state-owned companies, he said. The report was also likely to
criticize delays to forming a new coalition government following January
21 elections and the subsequent concerns about the parliament's approval
of a new budget by the month's end. …” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
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"WE NEED ALL HANDS ON DECK" URGES KING ABDULLAH II AHEAD OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ON THE MIDDLE EAST IN MAY
1,000 high-level participants are expected at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Jordan.
Geneva, Switzerland – 1,000 participants – 65% from business, 35% from government, NGOs and academia – are expected at the meeting, which will take place on 18-20 May 2007.
"We need all hands on deck. The international community, especially the US, must be engaged in moving the process forward," said the King in his speech to the US Congress yesterday referring to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The World Economic Forum on the Middle East has a strong record as a neutral platform for dialogue between countries, regions and religions. Under the theme Putting Diversity to Work, this year’s meeting will focus the world’s attention on the urgent steps required for peace and stability in the region, highlighting the following issues:
• Israel-Palestine
• Iran and the Region
• Iraq
• Islam and the West
• International Aid
• Trade
Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum; H.M. Queen Rania of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan; and H.M. King Abdullah II Ibn Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan will welcome high-level participants to engage in the dialogue. At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007, Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority and Tzipi Livni, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel, said they are willing to carry on the discussions which started in 2006 at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El Sheikh.
Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister of Pakistan; Abdelaziz Bouteflika, President of Algeria; Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary of Commerce, USA; Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan; Mohammad Khatami, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran (1997-2005); Adil Abd al-Mahdi, Vice-President of Iraq; John McCain, US Senator from Arizona; Amre Moussa, Secretary-General of the League of Arab States; Ahmed Mahmoud Nazif, Prime Minister of Egypt; John D. Negroponte, Deputy Secretary of State, USA; Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel; Shimon Peres, Vice-Prime Minister of Israel; Barham Salih, Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq; Fouad Siniora, Prime Minister of Lebanon; Javier Solana Madariaga, Secretary-General, Council of the European Union; and Alvaro De Soto, United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process are expected to participate in the meeting.
Putting Diversity to Work is not only the central theme of the meeting, it is also key to the future of the region. Through the meeting and its outcomes, the Forum intends to be a catalyst for positive change for societies in the Middle East – to help them in their aspirations for a more stable, vibrant and prosperous life. Global leaders from all walks of life, in particular from the Middle East, will return to the Dead Sea to work together to capitalize on the inherent diversity of the region. Diversity has a broader meaning in the Middle East drawing in business diversifications, political pluralism and social richness in terms of gender, faith, ethnicity and age. “Diversity carries the power for indigenous renewal in the Middle East, “ said Sherif El Diwany, Director, Middle East & North Africa, World Economic Forum.
“The Middle East is again at a major crossroads. Politically, the challenges in Palestine, central to the whole region, are being exacerbated by the situation in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Economically, development requirements now have a greater chance of being funded through the windfall profits of regional oil producers. Yet, the challenges of interdependence and integration still persist, leaving open the questions surrounding the future of the overwhelming majority of the region’s inhabitants, and particularly the youth. The World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Jordan in May will present the challenges, debate the issues and provide a platform for political, civil and business leaders to offer solutions – ones that we cannot live without,” said Bassem I. Awadallah, Director, Office of His Majesty the King, The Royal Hashemite Court, Jordan.
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World News Briefly Noted - March 5, 2007
German parliamentarians have backed the Berlin
government's resolve to make better co-operation with African nations a
top priority during Germany's current EU and G8 presidencies. In a
critical review of European policies towards Africa, the Bundestag on
Friday demanded that conventional development aid for Africa be replaced
steadily by a long-term strategy of political and economic co-operation.
Addressing the national parliament, German foreign minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier emphasized that traditional instruments such as debt
cancellation and poverty reduction were no longer sufficient to assist
African nations in their future development. [Deutsche Welle (Germany,
03/03)/Factiva]
The Ethiopian government and the private sector will soon resume the
public-private partnership dialogue. Magdi Amin, Senior Private Sector
Development Specialist with the World Bank, told The Reporter that the
concept of the private-public forum has been discussed over the past year
and there was broad consensus on the importance of the forum as a
results-oriented dialogue around solving investment climate problems. [The
Reporter (Ethiopia, 03/03)/Factiva]
Nigeria was scheduled to redeem most of its remaining debt to the London
Club of commercial creditors Friday in a deal with Merrill Lynch that
Nenadi Usman, the finance minister, said would finally "free Nigeria from
its historic debt overhang." The deal, to be signed in London, transferred
the obligation to pay creditors to Merrill Lynch through a payment to the
US investment bank of $480 million, Usman told The Financial Times. [The
Financial Times (UK, 03/02)/Factiva]
Democratic Republic of Congo's new government refused to accept the
dismissal of the head of state-owned copper and cobalt mining company
Gecamines on Friday, a day after the decision provoked protests by
employees. French engineering consultancy SOFRECO, which was brought in by
Congo's government and the World Bank to help salvage the struggling firm,
dismissed Canadian Paul Fortin on Wednesday. Hundreds of employees stopped
work on Thursday and picketed Gecamines' headquarters in Lubumbashi, the
capital of the mineral-rich Katanga province, calling for Fortin to be
reinstated. [Reuters (03/02)/Factiva]
The Rio Group summit, attended by only eight Latin American presidents,
debated whether to admit Cuba to the club of 19 countries of the region,
before ending Saturday. [Agence France Presse (03/04)/Factiva]
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private-sector arm of the
World Bank, plans to commit about $200-300 million a year over the next
three to five years to the Chinese manufacturing and services sectors. The
new funds, to come as both loans and equity investments, would build on an
existing portfolio in those sectors of about $500 million, Dimitris
Tsitsiragos, Director of the IFC's global manufacturing and services
department, told a news conference. [Reuters (03/02)/Factiva]
Three outstanding Vietnamese projects have been chosen from a total of 105
projects for the final round of the 2007 Global Development Marketplace
Competition, or GDMC, the World Bank has announced. Representatives of
these selected projects will be invited to the World Bank Headquarters on
May 22-23 to display their projects and receive funding. [The Saigon Times
Daily (Vietnam, 03/05/Factiva]
Multinational agencies and donor institutions, led by the World Bank and
development agencies from Japan and the US, are set to meet with top
government officials and business leaders in Cebu on March 8 to attend the
Philippine Development Forum that will set the directions of the foreign
aid to the country. [BBC News Online (UK, 03/04)/Factiva]
A Maldivian mission will soon be opened in Washington DC; Foreign Minister
Ahmed Shaheed has said. "There will be only two or three staff. The idea
is to have a presence. Financial institutions such as the World Bank and
IMF are headquartered in Washington. As we graduate from LDC [least
developed country] status and our economy expands, these organizations
will become important." [BBC News Online (UK, 03/04)/Factiva]
The World Bank and the UK's Department for International Development have
refused to finance the Indian government's purchase of condoms to fight
HIV/AIDS because of an alleged lack of transparency in procurement
procedures, The Financial Times has learnt. [The Financial Times
(03/05)/Factiva]
The World Bank will Monday embark on a year-long, $20 billion-plus
fundraising drive that will test donor countries' willingness to live up
to promises made following the Gleneagles agreement on debt relief and to
support the Bank under the leadership of Paul Wolfowitz. The money is
needed to replenish the International Development Association (IDA) - the
Bank's main financing arm for poor countries - for the three-year period
from July 2008. The negotiations.. include discussion of policy
priorities.. [The Financial Times (03/05)]
In an interview with El Mundo [(Spain, 02/05)/Factiva], World Bank Chief
Economist Francois Bourguignon [...] defends a system of development aid
and debt relief for poorer countries, while urging corporations to do more
to fight corruption. He just finished attending a conference on Middle
Income Countries [hosted by the Spanish government on March 1-2 in
Madrid], a forum which tried to define the mechanisms to fight poverty
more precisely. In a separate interview with Expansion [(Spain,
02/03)/Factiva] given after the conference, Bourguignon, maintains that
the fall of the markets does not change his diagnosis of the world-wide
economy, which will undergo a "smooth landing." The bumps in the
international markets over the past few days have not made a dent at the
moment, according to the World Bank's 2007 estimations.
Executive Director of the World Bank, economist Otaviano Canuto is a
scholar of global financial architecture. On a visit to Rio, where he is
participating in a seminar on IMF-World Bank reform, Canuto told El Globo
that it is impossible to foresee at this point the current correction of
prices in world stock markets, but he believes that the risk of a
financial crisis is in the US, and not in China. [O Globo
(Brazil,03/03)/Factiva]
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Worldwide market correction hurts equity fund returns in February, Morningstar data shows
TORONTO - February was shaping up to be another spectacular month for equity funds until concerns over the sustainability of China's growth, coupled with sobering economic news out of the U.S., sent worldwide markets tumbling on the second-last day of the month. Many of the world's bourses, including those of China, Canada and the U.S., had already shown signs of recovery by the following day, but others in Europe and Asia continued to tumble.
All 22 of the Morningstar Canada Fund Indices that measure the
performance of the various equity-based categories lost ground on Feb. 27.
Meanwhile, each of the six fixed-income fund indices had above-average one-day
gains, a consequence of investors' fleeing the equity markets for the relative
safety of bonds. The hardest hit fund indices that day were Precious Metals
Equity, Emerging Markets Equity and Natural Resources Equity, down 5.9%, 3.9%
and 3.5% respectively.
"Gold is normally considered a safe haven during financial and political
instability. However, if the Chinese economy falters, the price of the shiny
metal may follow suit since China is a significant purchaser of gold," said
Morningstar Canada fund analyst Jordan Benincasa. "Also, precious metals funds
don't hold just gold stocks but other metals such as copper, nickel, and zinc.
China buys a lot of these raw materials for infrastructure development, and a
slowing Chinese economy would translate into lower demand."
Another reason for the pullback in the precious metals fund index is the
fact that these funds tend to hold highly leveraged microcap and small-cap
stocks. "These characteristics can cause them to be quite volatile, on the
upside and downside," Benincasa said. Before the market correction, the
Morningstar Canada Precious Metals Fund Index was boasting a 7.1% gain but
finished the month up 2.1%, according to preliminary data released today by
Morningstar Canada.
Japanese Equity was one of the least affected equity fund categories on
Tuesday, as the index lost a relatively modest 1.2%. Before then, the fund
index was enjoying a 3.6% return for the first 26 days of the month. However,
the sell-off reached the Tokyo stock exchange on Wednesday, and the Nikkei 225
Index dropped almost 3% for the day. This only had a minor impact on Japanese
equity funds though, since these benefited from a 1.5% increase in the yen
versus the Canadian dollar for the month. The Morningstar Japanese Equity Fund
Index ended February up 2.2%, ahead of all other Morningstar Canada Fund
Indices.
The global flight to safety affected small-cap funds more than their
larger sized counterparts, as smaller companies are generally seen as riskier
than blue chip firms. The Canadian Small/Mid Cap Equity and Canadian Anchored
Small/Mid Cap Equity fund indices were down 2.6% and 2.5% respectively on
Tuesday, compared to losses of 2.3% for both Canadian Equity and Canadian
Anchored Equity. Similar trends could be observed in U.S. equity and global
equity fund categories.
But because the small and mid cap fund indices were enjoying better
returns than large cap funds leading up to Tuesday's events, the losses were
not enough to offset those gains, and small cap categories finished higher in
the rankings for the month as a whole. Canadian Small/Mid Cap Equity had the
third best monthly return among all fund indices, up 1.9%, and Canadian
Anchored Small/Mid Cap Equity finished ninth with a 1% gain. Canadian Equity
and Canadian Anchored Equity both ended the month in the red with losses of
0.3% and 0.7%, respectively.
The worst performing fund index overall for the month was U.S. Equity,
which lost 2.5%. Even before the Feb. 27 correction, funds in this category
were already in the doldrums, hurt by a 1.7% fall in the U.S. dollar versus
the loonie. The U.S. Equity fund index was one of only two indices (the other
being Health Care Equity) in negative territory at the close of business on
Monday. It dropped an additional 3% on Tuesday, as China-inspired jitters were
compounded by disappointing economic indicators on the home front and by
comments made over the weekend by former Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan, who warned that a recession was possible before the end of the
year. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 dropped about 3.5%
but made cautious recoveries on the following day after current Fed chairman
Ben Bernanke stated that U.S. markets were "working normally."
The second worst performing fund index in February was Emerging Markets
Equity, which lost 2%. Meanwhile, the European Equity fund index, whose eight
previous monthly returns were all above 1%, finished fourth from the bottom
with a 1.7% loss for the month. Both of these categories were hit particularly
hard by the correction and, unlike their Canadian and U.S. equity
counterparts, had not recovered any of the lost ground by month-end.
For the first time since May 2006, fund indices representing fixed income
categories all ended the month in the top half of the performance rankings in
February. The Canadian Long Duration Fixed Income fund index had the best
return of this group, a 1.8% gain that placed it in fifth place overall. The
five other fixed income fund indices had returns ranging from 1.2% for High
Yield Fixed Income to 0.6% for Canadian Short Duration Fixed Income.
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Stephen Lewis to speak at Laurier’s Global Citizenship Conference
WATERLOO – World-renowned humanitarian Stephen Lewis will share his perspective on global issues at Wilfrid Laurier University’s Global Citizenship Conference, March 9-11.
The conference is designed for people seeking greater knowledge about the world and the practical implications of global citizenship. Discussions will focus on the environment, economics and trade, human rights, peace and conflict and human development.
“We are thrilled to have Stephen Lewis come to Laurier,” said conference organizer Anthony Piscitelli. “He has first-hand knowledge of global issues through his roles as an international diplomat. His insight will be of great interest to those attending the conference.”
Lewis is the chair of the Stephen Lewis Foundation, which is dedicated to reducing the pain of HIV/AIDS in Africa. He is the award-winning author of the national bestseller Race Against Time. Among other high-profile humanitarian roles, he serves as a commissioner for the World Health Organization’s Commission on the Social Determinants of Health. He is the former UN Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa, and served as the deputy executive director for UNICEF. His United Nations career has spanned more than two decades. He served as the leader of Ontario’s New Democratic Party for eight years.
Also featured as a keynote speaker is Prof. Rhoda Howard-Hassmann, Laurier’s Canada Research Chair in International Human Rights, a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, and senior research fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
The three-day conference will not only explore the theoretical aspects of global citizenship through panel discussions, but it will also bring the issues to a practical level through workshops, where attendees will come away with the hands-on tools needed to generate positive change.
Beyond the discussions, the conference aims to create a global experience through art, music and food, including a Saturday night concert and fashion show. It will also encourage the open exchange of ideas through displays and interaction in the “global marketplace of ideas” gathering space.
The conference is open to the public. The Stephen Lewis keynote address takes place Friday March 9, 7:30 p.m. at the Wilfrid Laurier University Athletic Complex Gymnasium. To purchase tickets for the keynote address only, visit www.ticketweb.ca, call 1-888-222-6608 or visit the Laurier Bookstore. Tickets are $15, or $2 for Laurier students.
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World Bank Helps Water Treatment Projects In Iran
“The World Bank has invested $1.3 billion in nine water and wastewater
treatment projects in Iran, The Tehran Times reported on Thursday.
In addition to the investment, the World Bank is currently conducting some
similar projects in a number of Iranian provinces, the report quoted a
representative of the Bank in Iran's Water and Soil Comprehensive Plan as
saying. Referring to the Bank's cooperation with Iran in the construction
of Alborz reservoir dam in the northern province of Mazandaran, the
representative said that the first phase of the project had already been
completed. He also announced that despite some difficulties ahead,
development of the project was expected to be finished within seven years
as earlier estimated. …” [Xinhua (China)/Factiva]
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Arab Economies Grow Despite Regional Violence
“Arab Gulf states are utilizing oil revenues to diversify their economies
better and non-oil producers in the Middle East are liberalizing faster
despite political turmoil, the World Bank's deputy head said on Tuesday.
‘In general all countries of the region are growing at a rate of between
three to seven percent,’ Juan Jose Daboub, the World Bank's Managing
Director told Reuters in an interview at the end of a six nation Middle
East tour… Daboub said growing challenges facing Arab economies ranged
from access to education, health and providing wider job opportunities for
the people of the region in addition to allowing the private sector a
bigger role. ‘There are many obstacles still for the private sector to
cope to get and generate jobs but I found in each of the countries I
visited a thinking in the same direction in order to create a better
environment for these jobs to be created,’ Daboub said. …
Daboub gave an upbeat assessment of efforts by most Arab countries he
visited such as Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain towards introducing free market
reforms and greater liberalization. … Arab Gulf states awash with windfall
revenues from almost a tripling of oil prices since 2001 have made
progress in efforts to diversify their oil dependent economies, he added.
‘Diversification of the economy is the name of the game. I see
diversification. Countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain are moving in a
steady pace towards reforms while diversifying their economic base away
from oil,’ he added
Governments in the region are ploughing money into giant infrastructure
projects to help wean their economies off oil exports. ‘They are also
managing in a very responsible way the resources and revenues they are
obtaining for those years when those resources might not be available,’ he
added. … Daboub said combating corruption and improving governance were
critical to fighting poverty and preventing misallocation of resources.
‘In order to remove obstacles you need to have governments that are clear
about good governance, about fighting corruption and about having the
right reforms in place so that you could send positive signals for the
private sector,’ he said. …” [Reuters/Factiva]
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Poor Countries Hurt by Climate Change, Wolfowitz Says
“Developing countries are suffering as a result of the environmental
policies of wealthier nations, and will be forced to spend more of their
resources for high fuel bills, said World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz.
Wealthy countries should push an ‘equitable’ solution where they provide
support to developing nations and reap benefits from economic growth in
developing regions, Wolfowitz said in his first speech devoted to climate
change since he became head of the World Bank in June 2005. Without naming
countries, Wolfowitz … said wealthy nations need to take the initiative
and invest in alternative fuels and combat deforestation. Developing
economies will continue to fall behind as a result of the high energy
costs, he said. ‘We cannot penalize countries escaping from poverty for
what is the result of a fossil-fuel-dependant growth pattern in rich
countries,’ Wolfowitz said in a speech [Wednesday] night at the World Bank
in Washington. … Wolfowitz's speech was part of a conference in Washington
on climate change that included lawmakers from around the globe as well as
business leaders including Richard Branson, chief executive officer of
Virgin Group Ltd. ….
‘We are seeing today an emerging global consensus that we need to do
something about climate change,’ Wolfowitz said. ‘We need to reduce our
dependence on fossil fuels and we need to do this sooner rather than
later.’ Wealthier countries should push policies to support new biofuels,
such as those available in Brazil, rather than rely on oil from unstable
parts of the world, he said. The Washington-based World Bank has increased
its lending on energy projects to $2.5 billion from $1.5 billion four
years ago to countries such as China, Mexico, and Russia. … The longer
the wealthy countries go before taking action, the more costly it will be
to reverse environmental damage, Wolfowitz said. …” [Bloomberg]
AFP reports that “… German Chancellor Angela Merkel, addressing the forum
at the US Senate in a recorded video message, said she was determined to
bring about breakthroughs on global warming during her tenure this year as
Group of Eight (G8) chair. The Washington gathering, she said, presented a
‘unique forum’ to address the problem through talks among lawmakers from
the G8 powers plus five major developing economies - Brazil, China, India,
Mexico and South Africa. The legislators aim to craft a consensus position
on climate change to present to the German leader Thursday. …” [Agence
France Presse/Factiva]
AP writes that “A panel of US senators told lawmakers from about 20
countries that political pressure is building in Washington to commit to
mandatory cuts in carbon emissions, despite opposition from President
George W. Bush. … US lawmakers from both major parties say that the Bush
administration has begun to shift its position as public support builds
for tougher measures on emissions. …” [The Associated Press/Factiva]
Reuters adds that “… At [the] Capitol Hill meeting … [US Senator] John
McCain put the case for action on climate change bluntly. … McCain said
the push to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that spur global climate
change was a national security issue, and that voluntary efforts to limit
those emissions from vehicles, power plants and other human sources ‘will
not change the status quo.’ McCain and Senator Joseph Lieberman, a
Connecticut independent, have pushed legislation that would set limits on
the emission of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, and allow those
that exceed them to trade with others that are under the limit, a plan
known as cap-and-trade. …” [Reuters/Factiva]
The BBC notes “… The meeting, organized by British-run parliamentarians'
group Globe (Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment),
is strongly supported by the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. On Thursday, it
will publish recommendations for a new world deal on climate change at the
G8 summit. … Blair hopes the Globe forum will clear the way for a historic
agreement between the G8 and five biggest developing nations on a
stabilization goal for greenhouse gases - a limit beyond which the world
should not pass. He also wants to see a global price for carbon and a big
increase in the funds available for developing countries to expand their
economies more cleanly. …” [BBC News Online]
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China's Economy To Grow Fast, Face More External Imbalance: World Bank
“The World Bank said [in Beijing] on February 14 that China's economy may
still enjoy favorable prospects in the near time, with a possible high
growth rate of 9.6 percent this year. It also warned in its latest ‘China
Quarterly Update’ that the country must cultivate new sources of growth to
rebalance it economic expansion.
‘China still has a vast potential for catching up in productivity, but
China's industry, investment and export based growth has become
increasingly problematic because of trade tensions and environmental and
resource constraints,’ said [World Bank, Senior Economist] Aloysius Kuijs,
…main author of the Quarterly. ‘With a growth pattern that relies more on
services, and more labor-intensive urban growth, more of growth could come
from reallocation of labor out of agriculture’ he said. Kuijs contended
that growth along such rebalanced patterns could boost urban employment,
wages and household incomes and reduce rural- urban disparities, while
mitigating external imbalances. …” [Xinhua (China)/Factiva]
Reuters notes that “… China's industry, investment and export-based growth
had become increasingly problematic because of trade tensions and
environmental and resource constraints, it cited Kuijs, as saying.
Spending more on healthcare and education were steps in the right
direction as it tended to reduce investment and increase consumption.
Still, China needed a host of structural policies to tackle the root
causes of the imbalances. The Bank advocated greater reliance on services
and incentives to shift labor from agriculture to more productive urban
jobs. …” [Reuters/Factiva]
Dow Jones reports that “The World Bank said … [that China's economic
growth of 9.6 percent would be slower than last’s years10.7 percent], with
the external imbalance remaining a challenge… ‘China's internal macro
challenges remain manageable, but the external imbalance is on the rise,’
said the World Bank. … The World Bank also revised its forecast of China's
inflation rate this year. It now expects China's consumer price index to
rise 2.5 percent in 2007, up from its November projection of 2.1 percent.
… The World Bank forecast China's broadest measure of money supply, M2,
will likely be 16 percent higher at the end of this year than at the end
of 2006, down from the 16.9 percent rise at the end of last year. The
World Bank's previous forecast for China's M2 growth in 2007 was 15
percent. [Dow Jones/Factiva]
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World Bank Online: China Growth Continues to Impress, New Sources of Growth Will Have to Emerge in the Medium Term
BEIJING – China's internal macro challenges remain manageable, but the external imbalance is on the rise, notes the World Bank's China Quarterly Update released February 14, 2007. "Thus, policy measures that address domestic concerns could ideally also reduce the external imbalance," says Bert Hofman, Lead Economist for China.
"The government has already decided on a
dividend policy for SOEs and a more rapid increase in spending on health and
education, and has stepped up the pace of currency appreciation. These measures
tend to reduce investment and increase consumption, and are thus steps in the
right direction." Meanwhile, containing investment growth and inefficiency on a
more sustainable basis calls for structural policies that address the
underlying causes of inefficiency and excess investment.
Economic growth eased slightly in the second half of 2006. Investment cooled in
the second half in response to tightening measures introduced mid-2006.
However, as exports continued to outpace imports by a wide margin, the impact
on overall growth was largely offset and the external surplus reached new
highs, while foreign reserve accumulation continued apace. Surging stock prices
prompted measures to slow new funds moving into the stock market.
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G7 Seeks To Streamline Financial Regulations
“US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he and other finance ministers
in the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrial nations [UK, Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan and the US] are exploring ways to reduce
‘duplicative’ financial regulations and standards, making it easier for
companies that do business globally.
Meanwhile, Paulson continued to dismiss questions about the weakness of
the Japanese yen, saying it is ‘market-determined’ and not being
manipulated. While Germany and other European countries have complained
that the yen is being manipulated, the G7's final communique made no
reference to the currency. Paulson said the aim of the
financial-regulation effort is to ‘break down artificial barriers’ and
find a way to harmonize regulations and standards so costs and other
constraints for multinational companies are reduced. …” [The Wall Street
Journal (02/12)/Factiva]
The Financial Times reports that “… The meeting also repeated appeals to
China to increase its currency's flexibility, but stressed the importance
of its trade-weighted exchange rate - apparently recognizing worries about
the renminbi in countries other than the US. Highlighting the upbeat
outlook for the world economy, the G7 said: ‘The US economy is
experiencing solid activity, while adjusting to a more sustainable growth
path.’ The eurozone was ‘experiencing an increasingly broad-based upswing,
Japan's recovery is on track and is expected to continue.’ In an apparent
compromise, the statement went on: ‘We are confident that the implications
of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will
be incorporated in their assessments of risk.’ …” [The Financial Times
(UK, 02/12)]
Meanwhile, AP notes that “… The group's final statement Saturday made
little mention of [Africa] - but the hopes remain. Finance officials from
the G7 said they agreed to ‘develop - together with African partners - an
action plan that includes a joint reform strategy’ aimed at promoting
effective and transparent budget processes to ease the specter of years of
corruption. The group said it discussed financial governance in Africa and
how it can be used ‘in channeling resources to their most productive use.’
However, missing were concrete proposals for expanding the amount of aid
and debt relief already agreed on by the G8 - the G7 plus Russia - which
was an aim laid out in policy speeches at last month's World Economic
Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Critics denounced what they said was a
cursory mention of Africa's plight. Gordon Brown, Britain's Treasury chief
and the likely successor to Prime Minister Tony Blair, had been expected
to use the gathering to promote more action on the G7's promises of
increasing aid for education in developing countries. …” [The Associated
Press (02/10)/Factiva ]
AFP adds that “Oxfam International accused the G7 rich countries Saturday
of reneging on aid pledges to Africa and said it was ‘unacceptable’ for
the group to lecture African states on good governance when it has failed
to live up to its own promises. … ‘Good financial management is a critical
issue and we welcome plans to increase support for improving
transparency,’ Oxfam International spokesman Max Lawson said. ‘But for
many African countries like Tanzania and Mozambique that have already
improved accountability and increased their own spending to reduce
poverty, more aid is urgently needed now to save lives and get more
children into school.’ …” [Agence France Presse (02/10)/Factiva]
Also at the meeting, Reuters reports that “Britain urg[ed] its partners in
the G7 to back a $4 billion ‘aid-for-trade’ deal to help poor countries
make key investments in schools, roads and other infrastructure. Brown
said Britain would contribute $750 million to the scheme by 2010 and hoped
other industrialized countries would follow suit. … .” [Reuters
(02/09)/Factiva]
AFP writes that “German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Friday he
was in favor of opening up the G7 bloc to emerging market countries such
as Russia and China. … ‘There's no formalized process as yet. But my
personal opinion is that in two, three, four years, we'll no longer have
the G7-G8, but a G10 or a G14,’ he said. In fact, ‘it is practically
already the case’ that a number of emerging countries already participated
in the talks, Steinbrueck added. Among the non-G7 participants attending
the meeting in Essen were top officials from Brazil, China, India, Mexico,
Russia and South Africa.” [Agence France Presse (02/09)/Factiva]
AFP further notes that “G7 finance chiefs made little headway on energy
and global warming questions, [Steinbrueck] disclosed Saturday after a
meeting that closely followed a stark warning on climate change from the
UN. … He told a press conference at the end of [the meeting that the G7]
had more work ahead of them if they were to make progress on climate
issues at a summit in June, when they would be joined by Russia in the G8.
… Steinbrueck said that at the talks Germany had spoken of the possibility
of extending the range of the European carbon trading mechanism and of
harmonizing fuel taxes, which in the EU alone are covered by five
different systems. … In its final statement the G7 said energy efficiency
and diversification had become ‘an increasingly important issue for our
economies as well as emerging market economies.’ …” [Agence France Presse
(02/10)/Factiva]
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Palestinian crisis talks start in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas opened crisis talks with Islamist group Hamas on Wednesday February 7, 2007 with a vow not to leave until they had reached agreement to end factional fighting he called a "catastrophe".
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Fiscal Decentralization in China—Potential Next Steps Human Development and Public Services Research
Fiscal decentralization is widely recognized as an essential component in China’s remarkable transition to a market economy. However, the intergovernmental fiscal system is now hitting a few snags—increasing regional disparities, proliferation of off-budgetary funds, deficient and unequal public services delivery, farmers’ financial burden, and rural unrest. What happened? And what happens now?
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Eyes of Business Are on Qatar as Gulf State Hosts the First Forbes CEO Middle East Forum
An Icon of Business and Sophistication, Forbes Plants a Flag in Doha for Historic February 26-28 Event
DOHA, QATAR - The dynamic Arabian Gulf State of Qatar, known for its progressive political and business environment, will welcome the prestigious Forbes CEO conference series to the Middle East, a first-of-its kind event. Forbes, publisher of Forbes magazine, America's leading business publication, chose Qatar to host the Forum, titled "Driving Growth- Risk and Reward in the Middle East." The Forum, to be held February 26 - 28, 2007 at the Four Seasons Hotel in Doha, will focus on the social and political transformation in the modern Middle East and highlight investment opportunities to top decision makers. The Forbes CEO Forum, to be held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Emir of Qatar, will be hosted by Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment & Development Company (QDREIDC).
"As one of the fastest growing economies in the world today, Qatar continues to consolidate itself as a dynamic leader of growth. This makes Doha an excellent location for dialogue and debate on strategic issues relating to the rewards of business in the Middle East," said the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani. "It is with great pleasure that I extend my Patronage to this prestigious event."
Corporate CEOs, politicians, world leaders, royals, dignitaries and other distinguished guests will be in attendance at February's 3-day conference, which will explore investment opportunities and wealth distribution, and provide networking opportunities and practical information for doing business in the Middle East.
According to Qatari Diar CEO Nasser Al Ansari, "Great people, ideas and companies are being developed in the Middle East, and this is our opportunity to share them with the broader business world. This region was the cradle of civilization and is rising again by being at the cutting edge of business across all sectors."
The Forum's agenda topics address a range of industries include: Hooked on Oil?; The New Silk Road - Opportunities for Asia and the Middle East; Mega Realty: Here To Stay?; Financial Services on the Fast Track; The Growing Power of Middle East Luxury; The Business of Sport; The Telecom Boom - A Little Healthy Competition; and The Dynamics of Family Business.
"In addition to the dynamism and sheer substance of the Forbes CEO Middle East Forum, guests and sponsors can expect the red carpet treatment and the hospitality that visitors to Qatar are accustomed to," said Nicola Pero, Executive Director of event organizers, Qatar Expo. "From Qatar Airways' unmatched business and first class travel, to the grandeur of the Four Seasons Doha, we promise an unforgettable event."
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Briefly Noted from February 2, 2007
For both the EU Council presidency and the G8 presidency “Africa is the
top issue linking them,” German Development Minister Heidemarie
Wieczorek-Zeul stressed in the Bundestag on Thursday. Among the "Africa
goals" of the double presidency she cited, among others, combating AIDS
and also a "pact for sustained economic growth". Together with the World
Bank, a regional micro-finance funds should be established so as to give
the poor groups of the population in Africa access to loans "and thus to
new opportunities in life." A central goal is also the promotion of
sustained energy supply. [ddp news agency (Germany)/Factiva]
A World Bank mission, led by Robin Cleveland, Counsellor to the President
to the president of the financial institution, just convened in Matadai,
the capital of Bas-Congo under the premises of reaffirming the DRC’s
Bretton Woods partnership. Citing the immense natural potential in the
DRC, Cleveland said that she hoped that with the democratization of
institutions, the World Bank will stay at the “bedside” of the DRC’s
economy for as long as possible during its post-conflict period for a
rapid increase in revenue, for the well-being of the Congolese people. [Le
Potentiel (DRC)/Factiva]
Ecuador, which has already spooked foreign investors with pledges to
restructure its debt, now plans an audit to determine "illegal" foreign
debt that will focus on the country's global bonds and loans from
multilateral lenders, Economy Minister Ricardo Patino said on Thursday.
Patino, who has said the country might not pay what he termed illegal
debt, said the audit could be carried out by the Economy Ministry or
academic organizations, which have criticized debt service payments.
[Reuters/Factiva]
Ecuador's new leftist government will not sign an agreement allowing the
International Monetary Fund to monitor the country's economic plan, the
economy minister said Thursday. [The Associated Press/Factiva]
First Vice Premier and Finance Minister Mykola Azarov and Director of the
World Bank for Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Paul Bermingham have discussed
elaboration of a new strategy for partnership between the World Bank and
Ukraine. The sides also discussed the forthcoming meeting of Mykola Azarov
and World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Shigeo Katsu.
Particularly, World Bank Chief Economic Advisor for Ukraine Martin Raiser
singled out four basic strategic directions in the Bank's cooperation with
Ukraine: boosting of the country's competitiveness, including an increase
in investments into its infrastructure and improvements in business
environment; increase in the effectiveness of work of municipal and state
sectors; improvements in social security, development of environment
protection, agricultural and energy-saving branches. [Ukrainian
News/Factiva]
The Asian Development Bank is investigating possible corruption in
Cambodia's handling of $27.2 million of loans for rural development
projects, its country director said on Thursday. Last year, the World
Bank suspended $7.6 million in funding for three Cambodian development
projects plagued by corruption and demanded misused funds be repaid.
[Reuters/Factiva]
More than 400 experts and government officials from 40 countries, 33 aid
and donor agencies and 30 NGOs and private companies will attend an
international roundtable conference on managing development aid in Hanoi
from February 5-8. In recent years, the global budget for development aid
has increased sharply, reaching $87 billion in 2005, and donors are
concerned about the results of the development aid. The conference will
be sponsored by the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the
United Nations Development Program, and the World Bank. [Thai News
Service/ Factiva]
Kosovo Albanians will know Friday whether or not they will have the
independent homeland of their dreams as the UN's special envoy unveils his
long-awaited plan for the Serbian province. The plan will be brought to
Belgrade and Pristina by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari, who has been tasked
with finding a solution to the most sensitive issue remaining from the
Balkan wars of the 1990s. [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
The Democratic-led House [in the US] acted this week to rescue another of
Bush's international priorities: the global fight against AIDS, malaria
and tuberculosis, diseases that kill millions of Africans each year. That
Democrats stepped in to champion Bush's signature global health
undertakings suggests the deepening of political support for foreign aid
programs, especially those that quickly demonstrate they can save hundreds
of thousands of lives. The new Democratic leadership agreed this week to
give the administration $4.5 billion this year to combat the big three
global pandemics, $500 million more than the president himself had
requested and over $1 billion more than if the undertakings had been
required to continue at the previous year's spending levels. [The New
York Times/Factiva]
David Nabarro, a Briton who heads the United Nations' fight against bird
flu, is the front-runner to lead a body dedicated to combating diseases
including AIDS. Nabarro was considered the strongest of three short listed
candidates to head the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and
Malaria, Fund sources said on Thursday. The other candidates are French
AIDS envoy Michel Kazatchkine and Alex Coutinho, head of Uganda's AIDS
Support Organization. [Reuters/Factiva]
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Editorial: India overheats
An editorial published in The Economist writes: “India cannot run as fast
as China without further reform. …
The roar from Delhi is echoing across Asia. After peevish years cast as
China's underperforming neighbor, the huntress is now in hot pursuit. Over
the past year the Indian economy has grown by an impressive 9.2 percent,
not far behind China's 10.4 percent. At some point this year India's
growth rate could even outpace China's; and if you measure things by
purchasing power parity, India should soon overtake Japan and become the
third-biggest economy, behind only America and China.
No wonder an increasing number of Indian businessmen, policymakers and
economists are basking in the belief that their country is burning bright
having at last broken free of its bureaucratic cage. An economy once
famous for the “Hindu rate of growth”, of 3 percent a year, was opened up
by the reforms of the 1990s, many of them pushed through by the man who is
now prime minister, Manmohan Singh. His government's latest five-year plan
assumes that India can sustain average growth of 9 percent. Who can doubt
“Incredible India”, to borrow the slogan of its tourism campaign?
Fast growth is essential to pull millions of Indians out of poverty, so it
is sad to pour cold water on this story. But that is precisely what is
needed when there are so many alarming signs of overheating. Across India
prices are rising fast, factories are at full capacity, loans are piling
up. Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spurred competition,
forced firms to become more productive and boosted India's trend - or
sustainable - rate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit
is almost certainly lower than the government's one. Historic data would
suggest a figure not much above 7 percent - well below China's 9-10
percent.
When you mention overheating, many analysts point towards China. Yet India
displays far more symptoms of the disease. Inflation has risen to 6-7
percent (compared with 2.8 percent in China); a record 99 percent of
Indian firms report that they are operating above their optimal capacity;
and credit is expanding at an annual rate of 30 percent, twice as fast as
in China. Unlike China, India also has a widening current-account deficit
- a classic sign of overheating, as domestic output fails to keep pace
with surging demand. And if you are looking for a stockmarket bubble,
Indian share prices have risen more than four-fold over the past four
years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a hard
landing will become inevitable. …” [The Economist (UK)/Factiva]
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Berlin Meeting On Afghanistan Ends With Commitment To Step Up Rebuilding
“An international meeting on Afghanistan closed Wednesday with delegates
reaffirming their commitment to step up rebuilding efforts, the Afghan
government and the UN mission in the country said.
The two-day meeting of the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB),
which brings together representatives from Afghanistan and the
international community, addressed Afghan hopes for ‘accelerated
Afghanization’ of its army and police, a joint statement said. Delegates
‘committed ... to more aggressive and determined rebuilding,’ it said. It
did not offer details of any concrete proposals. … The EU has stressed its
interest in helping Afghanistan combat corruption and build up its
security forces, and is drawing up plans for a police training mission. …
Both the US and EU have proposed new aid packages for Afghanistan over the
past week. …” [The Associated Press/Factiva]
“International donors on Wednesday [further] ended [the conference] with a
pledge to hand over more control to the war-scarred country in managing
its own affairs. The meeting of 23 countries agreed to new initiatives
proposed by Afghanistan. … The promise to increase Afghan ‘ownership’
appears to be a concession to pleas from the country to be allowed to play
a greater role in spending billions of dollars of aid money. Afghan
Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta told the conference on Tuesday that
his government ‘continues to be bypassed by donor countries. ‘Trusting
Afghan institutions will be an important step towards breaking this
cycle,’ he said. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier argued
that ‘considerable progress’ had been made in Afghanistan, but admitted
there were ‘shortfalls’ in the reconstruction. He said it was essential to
reform the Afghan security services and said he hoped that training of the
police force, already undertaken by German experts, would soon be
‘Europeanized.’ … The conference's closing statement meanwhile gave no
commitment about channeling more aid through the Afghan government. …”
[Deutsche Welle (Germany)/Factiva]
Meanwhile, “… Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU foreign affairs commissioner,
told the FT that donors continued to duplicate aid efforts and work. Amin
Farhang, Afghan trade minister, said: ‘Many donors are wasteful and do not
co-ordinate with us,’ in spite of the JCMB's efforts. Donors have pledged
about $20 billion for civil reconstruction between 2002 and 2010 but only
a small portion of this has been spent by Kabul, with the rest handled by
individual donors and aid agencies. The effort has also been hampered by a
shortage of funds, with the US unveiling an extra two-year, $10.6 billion
aid package in a move described by EU diplomats as a US change of course.
…” [The Financial Times (UK)]
AFP reports that “… The UN representative to Afghanistan, Tom Koenigs,
said the international community must move forward. ‘As 2007 starts we
have a window of opportunity to regain momentum. We have to turn the tide
and to seize every opportunity in the coming months for more growth, for
more effective governance.’ While the conference ended on an upbeat note,
international monitoring group Human Rights Watch painted a depressing
picture of life in Afghanistan. It said on Tuesday that little progress
had been made in the past year in providing Afghans with basic security,
food and health care. …” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
The Globe and Mail writes that “… David Sproule, Canada's ambassador to
Afghanistan who attended the meeting … said just seven of the 12
benchmarks set for 2006 had been completed. ‘I see this as quite
predictable,’ Sproule told an Ottawa news conference yesterday by
telephone. ‘The time frames attached for the achievement of those goals
were done a year ago and, in some cases, it's not a matter of the
benchmark [not being] achieved but rather we need more time to do it.’ The
benchmarks that were not met, he said, include the establishment of a
comprehensive plan for land mines, the development of a plan for
Afghanistan's natural resources, a review of the administrative boundaries
within the country, the crafting of new laws governing businesses and the
final ratification of the UN convention against corruption by the national
assembly. …” [The Globe and Mail (Canada)/Factiva]
Meanwhile, UZReport notes that “… In the 12 months since the Afghanistan
Compact was adopted, despite resurgent violence and record opium
production, the JCMB has been able to oversee quiet but steady progress
towards many vital goals, including creation of a national appointments
mechanism, technical and administrative support to the new National
Assembly, and reformed oversight procedures for strengthened government
transparency. Progress has also been made on creating sustainable water
resource strategies and plans for irrigation and drinking water, new
business organization laws, and an Action Plan on Peace, Justice and
Reconciliation.” [UzReport.com (Uzbekistan)/Factiva]
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Qatari Diar, the Smart Growth Leader, Joins Forces With Forbes Magazine for First-Ever Middle East CEO Forum
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