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| ECONOMY |
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Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 4 1/4 per cent
OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada announced on December 4, 2007 that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 4 1/2 per cent.
Since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), there have been a number
of economic and financial developments that have a bearing on the prospects
for output and inflation in Canada.
Consistent with the outlook in the MPR, the global economic expansion has
remained robust and commodity prices have continued to be strong. The Canadian
economy has been growing broadly in line with the Bank's expectations,
reflecting in large part underlying strength in domestic demand. However, both
total CPI inflation and core inflation in October, at 2.4 per cent and
1.8 per cent respectively, were below the Bank's expectations, reflecting
increased competitive pressures related to the level of the Canadian dollar.
The Bank now expects inflation over the next several months to be lower than
was projected in the MPR. In the context of exceptional volatility in global
financial markets, the Canadian dollar spiked well above parity with the U.S.
dollar in November, but it has recently traded closer to the 98-cent-U.S.
level assumed in the October MPR.
Overall, the Canadian economy continues to operate above its production
capacity. Given the strength of domestic demand and weak productivity growth,
there continue to be upside risks to the Bank's inflation projection.
However, other developments since October suggest that the downside risks
to the Bank's inflation projection have increased. Global financial market
difficulties related to the valuation of structured products and anticipated
losses on U.S. sub-prime mortgages have worsened since mid-October, and are
expected to persist for a longer period of time. In these circumstances, bank
funding costs have increased globally and in Canada, and credit conditions
have tightened further. There is an increased risk to the prospects for demand
for Canadian exports as the outlook for the U.S. economy, and in particular
the U.S. housing sector, has weakened.
All these factors considered, the Bank judges that there has been a shift
to the downside in the balance of risks around its October projection for
inflation through 2009. In light of this shift, the Bank has decided to lower
the target for the overnight rate. At its next interest rate decision in
January, the Bank will assess all economic and financial developments and the
balance of risks. A full projection for the economy and inflation will be
published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 24 January 2008.
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OECD Launches Accession Talks With Five Prospective Members
“The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced Monday December 3, 2007 that it has formally started talks with five prospective members to help them confront the challenges and opportunities posed by globalization. …The five countries are Chile, Estonia, Israel, Russia and Slovenia.
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria urged governments to work together to tackle issues like innovation, intellectual property rights, poverty, inequality, climate change and international migration. He added the OECD provides a forum for doing this. …” [Xinhua/Factiva]
AFP notes that “…The start of formal talks with the five countries marks a ‘new stage in the organization’s drive to broaden and deepen its involvement with emerging new players in the global economy. …
The OECD said negotiations would take place individually with the candidate countries and the organization’s deputy secretary-general Thelma Askey would visit each of the five countries over the next few weeks to start the process. …” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
Reuters writes that “…The roadmaps move it closer to opening entry talks proper for the five countries named and the organization … is seeking to forge closer ties too with the likes of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa. …
‘By extending our membership and deepening our relations with other big players in the world economy, we are broadening our perspectives and consolidating our role as a source of policy solutions,’ [Gurria] added in a statement. …” [Reuters/Factiva]
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Deposit-accepting intermediaries: Activities and economic performance - 2006
Strong employment levels and solid consumer and business spending fueled growth in both lending and deposit volumes in 2006. As a result, the value of services produced by deposit-accepting intermediaries (i.e., chartered banks, trust companies, caisses populaires and credit unions) rose 5.0% from 2005.
In total, these intermediaries produced services worth $64.8 billion. In 2006, the growth rate was just below the annual average of 6.1% since the survey began 10 years ago.
The industry performed favourably, thanks to volume growth in retail banking, strong trading revenues and significant merger and acquisition fees. However, income came under pressure from heightened competition and a narrowing interest-rate spread on lending products.
Net interest income rose 3.1% to $32.8 billion, largely the result of increased spreads on deposits and higher volumes in personal and business lending. Partially offsetting this growth was a drop in treasury and investment banking services, attributed to higher funding costs for equity trading strategies and lower new issue activity (that is, a lower volume of initial public offerings on Canadian exchanges).
Non-interest income rose 6.9% to $32.0 billion. Net interest income has outweighed non-interest income in this industry. However, strong growth in fee-based income over the past 10 years has almost closed this gap. In 2006, investment management and mutual fund fees grew significantly, as did credit card, deposit and payments services.
In 2006, deposit-accepting intermediaries increased their provisions for credit losses by 12.3% to $2.8 billion. These provisions reflected expected changes in losses from impaired loans and other credit instruments.
Most deposit-accepting intermediaries raised their provisions because of elevated lending volumes and higher write-offs on both personal and business loans, but this was not the case for all.
Retail banking volumes continue to thrive
The value of services in the retail banking segment rose 6.5% in 2006, due to growth in both net interest income (+4.9%) and non-interest income (+11.0%). These retail services accounted for 61.7% of the total value of services produced, emphasizing their position as the primary income-generating activity for deposit-accepting intermediaries.
Low long-term interest rates continued to fuel strong demand for both residential mortgages and personal loans. The labour market also contributed to this demand, as did a solid yet moderating housing market. Higher volumes and improved spreads on deposits were also widely reported.
This business segment has historically been mostly interest-based. Net interest income continued to contribute the majority (71.6%) of the value of services produced by retail banking. Nevertheless, this proportion has been steadily decreasing for the past five years, as fee-based income has become increasingly significant in the retail market.
Treasury and investment banking activities remain flat
The value of treasury and investment banking services remained flat in 2006 at $11.8 billion. They accounted for 18.3% of the value of total services produced.
Higher merger and acquisition fees and strong trading revenue could not compensate for weakened equity underwriting activity. However, this portfolio continues to be the second largest contributor to services produced for the industry.
Non-interest income rose 4.0% to $11.6 billion. Growth in investment management and mutual fund fees were factors in this increase, thanks to more money going into funds and higher-valued securities within the managed portfolios.
Net interest income dropped to $207 million due to disappointing equity-origination activity and higher trading-related funding costs. In addition, financial settlements and other losses against foreign operations were charged against net interest income in Canada.
Strong year for electronic financial services
The electronic financial services portfolio produced services worth $7.4 billion in 2006, an 8.7% increase from 2005. This portfolio has continued to be the fastest growing business segment of deposit-accepting intermediaries since the beginning of the survey.
Net interest income increased 11.3%, while non-interest income rose at a somewhat slower pace (+7.8%). Increased credit card balances and volumes were factors in this growth. Other factors included gains in payments services and, in many cases, expanded branch and automated banking machine networks.
Non-interest-related activities accounted for the majority (72.4%) of the value of services produced in this portfolio. Nevertheless, this was still down from the peak of 89.5% in 1999.
Electronic financial services are the third largest contributor to income for deposit-accepting intermediaries. In 2006, they accounted for 11.4% of total services produced, a proportion which has been increasing steadily since the inception of the survey. This portfolio serves as a means of delivery to extend the reach of other financial products and services.
Moderate growth in corporate and institutional finance portfolio
The value of services produced by corporate and institutional finance activities rose 7.0% to $4.4 billion in 2006, continuing the upward movement established in 2005. The corporate and institutional finance segment accounted for 6.8% of the total value of services produced.
Non-interest income climbed 13.5% to $2.6 billion, but was offset by a drop of 1.2% in net interest income to $1.8 billion.
Solid business loan demand and higher deposit volumes were partially offset by lower spreads on corporate loans and increased securitization of assets. Gains and losses from securitization are recorded as non-interest income, and thus have a negative impact on results for net interest income.
Decline in fiduciary services
The value of fiduciary services declined 13.7% to $1.2 billion in 2006, as fiduciary services continued to be incorporated under the treasury and investment banking portfolio.
Growth in customer assets under management and administration was widely reported in 2006, as were higher spreads on personal investment products.
Fiduciary services have traditionally represented a small portion of the overall value of services produced by deposit-accepting intermediaries. In 2006, they accounted for only 1.9%.
| Value of services produced by deposit-accepting intermediaries |
| |
Net interest income |
Non-interest income |
Value of services produced in Canada1 |
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
| |
$ millions |
% change |
$ millions |
% change |
$ millions |
% change |
| Retail banking services |
27,323 |
28,650 |
4.9 |
10,239 |
11,365 |
11.0 |
37,562 |
40,014 |
6.5 |
| Corporate and institutional finance |
1,819 |
1,797 |
-1.2 |
2,271 |
2,579 |
13.5 |
4,090 |
4,375 |
7.0 |
| Electronic financial services2 |
1,827 |
2,033 |
11.3 |
4,946 |
5,332 |
7.8 |
6,773 |
7,365 |
8.7 |
| Treasury and investment banking3 |
716 |
207 |
-71.1 |
11,177 |
11,622 |
4.0 |
11,893 |
11,829 |
-0.5 |
| Fiduciary services |
97 |
93 |
-4.5 |
1,323 |
1,132 |
-14.4 |
1,420 |
1,225 |
-13.7 |
| Total4 |
31,782 |
32,778 |
3.1 |
29,956 |
32,030 |
6.9 |
61,738 |
64,808 |
5.0 |
| 1. | The value of services produced is not reduced by provisions for credit losses. |
| 2. | See Note to readers. |
| 3. | Certain international treasury transactions, which are netted out in consolidated world results, can significantly affect the Canadian data reported by multinational respondents. |
| 4. | Figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. |
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| Distribution of income by activity of deposit-accepting intermediaries |
| |
Net interest income |
Non-interest income |
Value of services produced in Canada |
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
| |
% |
% point change |
% |
% point change |
% |
% point change |
| Retail banking services |
86.0 |
87.4 |
1.4 |
34.2 |
35.5 |
1.3 |
60.8 |
61.7 |
0.9 |
| Corporate and institutional finance |
5.7 |
5.5 |
-0.2 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
0.2 |
| Electronic financial services1 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
0.5 |
16.5 |
16.6 |
0.1 |
11.0 |
11.4 |
0.4 |
| Treasury and investment banking2 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
37.3 |
36.3 |
-1.0 |
19.3 |
18.3 |
-1.0 |
| Fiduciary services |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
-0.9 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
-0.4 |
| Total3 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| 1. | See Note to readers. |
| 2. | Certain international treasury transactions, which are netted out in consolidated world results, can significantly affect the Canadian data reported by multinational respondents. |
| 3. | Figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. |
|
| Type of income by type of activity |
| |
Proportion of value of services produced in Canada |
| |
Net interest income |
Non-interest income |
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
2005 |
2006 |
2005 to 2006 |
| |
% |
% point change |
% |
% point change |
| Retail banking services |
72.7 |
71.6 |
-1.1 |
27.3 |
28.4 |
1.1 |
| Corporate and institutional finance |
44.5 |
41.1 |
-3.4 |
55.5 |
58.9 |
3.4 |
| Electronic financial services1 |
27.0 |
27.6 |
0.6 |
73.0 |
72.4 |
-0.6 |
| Treasury and investment banking2 |
6.0 |
1.7 |
-4.3 |
94.0 |
98.3 |
4.3 |
| Fiduciary services |
6.8 |
7.6 |
0.8 |
93.2 |
92.4 |
-0.8 |
| Total |
51.5 |
50.6 |
-0.9 |
48.5 |
49.4 |
0.9 |
| 1. | See Note to readers. |
| 2. | Certain international treasury transactions, which are netted out in consolidated world results, can significantly affect the Canadian data reported by multinational respondents. |
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Note to readers
The annual Survey of Deposit-accepting Intermediaries covers the Canadian-based activities of the principal deposit-accepting intermediaries, namely chartered banks, trust companies, caisses populaires and credit unions. The report does not cover foreign operations.
Retail banking services (chartered banks, trust companies, caisses populaires and credit unions) cover all financial services to individuals and to small- and medium-sized businesses through a traditional branch network.
Corporate and institutional finance services cover financing and operating services for institutions and large corporations. They include trade, export and project financing and syndicated lending.
Electronic financial services cover services to individuals, businesses and institutions through networks of banking machines, debit and credit cards, telephone banking and the Internet. Some of the respondents were unable to provide separate estimates for their activities in electronic financial services. This may result in some under-estimation of the values for these services and over-estimation for retail banking services. The aggregated totals including these two segments remain strong.
Treasury and investment banking services: Treasury banking manages the funds of the deposit-accepting intermediary, itself. Investment banking covers services to individuals, corporations and institutions such as securities brokerage, mutual fund management, corporate financing and other investment services.
Fiduciary services refer to all services provided when acting as a trustee or agent such as record-keeping, custodial and performance evaluation services for personal trusts, pension funds, corporate and institutional investments and group Registered Retirement Savings Plans.
Net interest income is the difference between interest income and interest expenses. Interest income covers all interest from loans, titles and deposits of deposit-accepting intermediaries. Interest expenses cover interest paid on deposits, subordinated debentures and other interest costs.
Non-interest income covers all sources of revenue other than interest income. Examples include revenue from brokerage and other securities services, credit services, deposit and payment services charges, trading, mutual fund management, card services, foreign exchange, securitization activities and trans-sectoral income.
Value of services produced is the sum of net interest and non-interest income. This value is not to be confused with service charges.
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Canadian economic accounts Third quarter 2007 and September 2007
Economic growth moderated in the third quarter as real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.7%, down from 0.9% in the second quarter. Economic output was up 0.1% in September, after increasing 0.2% in August and 0.1% in July. Final domestic demand remained buoyant (+1.1%), outpacing GDP for the 11th quarter in the past 12.
A more detailed analysis is available in Canadian Economic Accounts Quarterly Review.
Consumer spending eased in the third quarter from its robust showing in the second, while retailers and wholesalers added significantly to their inventories. Imports outpaced exports by a wide margin, as the Canadian dollar once again appreciated sharply (+5.1%) against its US counterpart.
Businesses took advantage of lower prices to invest heavily in machinery and equipment. Housing investment remained strong, propelled by new home construction, while the resale market retreated.
The output of the service industries expanded 0.9% in the third quarter, while the production of the goods industries contracted 0.1%. Significant growth was recorded in wholesale trade. Finance and insurance, construction, mining, and accommodation and food services also contributed to the overall increase. These gains were partly offset by declines in manufacturing, utilities, and forestry and logging.
Labour income grew at a slower pace than in the first half of 2007, while personal disposable income was up moderately. Corporate profits advanced on strong bank earnings.
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, compared with 4.9% for the US economy.
Industrial production (the output of utilities, mines and factories) slipped 0.4% in the third quarter as utilities and manufacturing both declined. Mining moved forward as a result of the increase in oil and gas exploration and metal ore mining. In comparison, all three sectors increased in the United States, resulting in an overall gain of 1.1% for the quarter.
Economy-wide prices in Canada, as measured by the chain price index for GDP, edged down 0.3% in the third quarter, partly as a result of lower prices for energy exports. Excluding energy, economy-wide prices were up 0.2%, after a 1.5% increase in the second quarter.
Pace of consumer spending eases
Growth of consumer spending eased to 0.7% in the third quarter, less than half the pace posted in the second quarter and the weakest gain in two years.
After increasing 3.9% in the second quarter, consumer purchases of new and used motor vehicles were down a sharp 2.6% in the third. Spending was also down on motor vehicle parts and repairs as well as on motor fuels. Consumption of electricity, natural gas and other fuels all declined.
Continued strength in the housing market stimulated spending on household furniture and appliances. Outlays were also strong on recreational, sporting and camping equipment and on clothing and footwear.
Consumption of services was up 1.1% in the third quarter, matching its pace in the second. Net expenditure abroad was up sharply for a second consecutive quarter, as the stronger dollar boosted Canadians' travel spending abroad (which includes cars and trucks purchased in the United States and brought back) and restrained spending by visitors to Canada.
Large build-up of inventories
Businesses added $15 billion worth of goods and materials to their non-farm inventories in the third quarter, following two quarters of small increases.
Retailers accounted for just over $9 billion of the inventory accumulation, with motor vehicles responsible for nearly half of the build-up. Wholesalers also added significantly to their inventories of motor vehicles and machinery and equipment.
Despite a 0.7% reduction in output, manufacturers built up stocks for the second consecutive quarter as higher inventories of finished goods more than offset lower inventories of raw materials.
Farm inventories dwindled for the third consecutive quarter, as farmers sold off grains at prices driven higher by demand for bio-fuels.
Imports outpace exports by wide margin
Imports of goods and services jumped 4.4% in the third quarter, following a 1.9% gain in the second. Imports have outpaced exports now in 12 of the past 17 quarters.
Machinery and equipment imports jumped 6.4% as Canadian businesses invested heavily in new machinery and equipment. Aircraft, engines and parts led in this category. Automotive products and other consumer goods were both up sharply.
Travel imports were up sharply for the second consecutive quarter as the soaring loonie stimulated Canadians' travel spending abroad.
Exports of goods and services increased 0.6% in the third quarter, after growing 0.8% in the second.
Exports of industrial goods and materials were up 4.5%, the strongest pace in a year, driven notably by higher shipments of nickel ores. Shipments of automotive products were up 2.0%, rebounding from two consecutive quarters of declines. Exports of energy products advanced 1.4% on increased oil and natural gas deliveries to the United States.
Labour disputes in the British Columbia forestry sector, as well as continued softening in US residential construction, contributed to a sharp 6.2% drop in forestry exports. The output of the forestry and logging industry slid 7.2%.
Heavy investment in machinery and equipment
Business investment in machinery and equipment picked up steam in the third quarter, advancing 3.6%, more than twice the pace set in the second quarter and the fastest pace in 10 quarters.
Investment in other transportation equipment jumped 14%, owing mainly to capital outlays by the airline industry. Outlays for telecommunications, computers and other office equipment and software posted solid increases.
On the downside, capital outlays for trucks slipped 2.8%, their third consecutive decline.
Continued gains in housing investment
Investment in housing posted another solid gain during the third quarter. Over the past three quarters, total investment in residential structures has grown 4.8%, compared with a decline of 2.9% over the preceding three quarters.
The strength in housing stemmed from new residential construction. Renovation activity gave an added boost, advancing 1.2% in the third quarter, twice its pace in the second.
The resale market cooled over the summer months, as ownership transfer costs (which include real estate commissions) slipped 1.6%, following two quarters of solid gains.
Labour income slows from first half of 2007
Labour income advanced 0.5% in the third quarter, less than one-third its pace in the first and second quarters, when special pay equity payments in Quebec and special pension contributions in Newfoundland and Labrador boosted labour income.
Excluding these special payments, labour income would have grown 1.2% in the third quarter, 1.6% in the second and 1.8% in the first.
Corporate profits boosted
Corporation profits before taxes increased 2.6%, the fastest pace in nearly two years. Profits were boosted by earnings in the banking sector. The oil and gas extraction industry, petroleum refineries and coal products, retailers and wholesalers also fared well.
Lower exports and labour disruptions in the British Columbia forestry sector contributed to lower profits for wood and paper producers, while lower commodity prices reduced profits in mining (excluding mineral fuels).
Gross domestic product by industry, September 2007
Economic activity was up 0.1% in September, after increasing 0.2% in August and 0.1% in July. The gain recorded by the service producing industries (+0.2%) was partially neutralized by the decrease in the production of goods (-0.1%). Increases in the energy sector and wholesale trade propelled the growth, while a decline in manufacturing and retail trade dampened it. Gains were also registered in construction and in the accommodation and food services sector. The finance and insurance sector and metal ore mining were additional sources of declines.
Wholesale trade rose 1.0% in September, for a fifth consecutive monthly increase. Gains were posted in the wholesaling of food and beverages, motor vehicles, and building supplies. These gains were dampened by declines in the wholesaling of oilseeds and grains, computer and other electronic equipment, lumber and millwork, and office and professional equipment. After a very strong showing in August, retail trade experienced a slight decrease of 0.3% in September.
Manufacturing retreated 0.9% in September, on the heels of declines in August and June, while the Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the US currency. The production of non-durable goods (-0.7%) and durable goods (-0.9%) declined. Of the 21 major manufacturing groups, 16 decreased, these accounting for 78% of total manufacturing value added.
The energy sector advanced 0.8% in September, after remaining unchanged in August. Electricity production jumped 1.7% in September, while natural gas production posted a slight increase and crude oil production slipped. Oil and gas exploration moved ahead (+3.7%) for the fourth month in a row, but still remains well below the level of activity recorded in early 2007.
The construction sector advanced 0.4% in September, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. The gains recorded in residential construction (+0.8%) and engineering and repair work (+0.3%) overshadowed the modest slip in non-residential building construction (-0.1%).
Industrial production (the output of mines, utilities and factories) retreated 0.3% in September. The gains in utilities and mining were not enough to offset the decline in manufacturing. In the United States, industrial production increased 0.2% in September. Both manufacturing and mining moved ahead, while utilities fell.
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Paper products industry to lose money again in 2007
OTTAWA - Canada's paper products industry will lose money for the third consecutive year in 2007, but is expected to break even next year, according to the Conference Board's Canadian Industrial Outlook: Canada's Paper Products Industry - Autumn 2007.
"Profits in recent years have taken a double hit from the rapid rise of
the loonie, since industry revenues are in U.S. dollars and costs are mainly
in Canadian dollars," said Valérie Poulin, Economist. "However, modest gains
in prices will help the industry make a slow recovery starting in 2008."
The industry will lose more than $400 million this year. With costs
expected to decrease faster than revenues in 2008, the industry can expect a
modest profit of $6 million next year. Profits are forecast to steadily
improve, exceeding $1 billion annually starting in 2010.
Production of paper products has been falling since 2004 and is expected
to decline through 2008, as the increased use of computers and the internet
limits North American demand for some grades of paper. Although demand from
China is on the rise, it will not offset the loss of exports to the U.S. and
weak domestic consumption.
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World Economic Growth Slowing, Unemployment At 6.3 Per Cent: UN.
"The world economy has been growing more slowly after global unemployment jumped to 6.3 percent last year, the highest in a decade, the UN reported. ...
It puts the expected growth of 2007 world gross product at 3.2 percent, down from an average 3.8 per cent a year during the previous decade. ...Some 195 million people were unemployed in 2006, an increase that despite continued growth in global economic output is 'giving rise to the phenomenon of jobless growth,' the [World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007] report said. The global labor pool comprises about two-thirds of the 4.6 billion people of working age, which the UN puts at 15 and older. [The Canadian Press/Factiva]
AP notes that "...In the decade ending in 2006, the global unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent, up from about 6 percent, according to the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Conference on Trade and Development and five regional commissions.
The UN economists said that for the first time in history, the service industry, accounting for 40 percent of all jobs, overtook agriculture as the biggest employer. ..." [The Associated Press/Factiva]
In related news, Xinhua adds that "Governments should make the promotion of employment and decent work the cornerstone of their economic and social policies, a UN report said Wednesday.
'Employment and decent work need to be not a by-product but a central objective of development strategies,' said Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Sha Zukang at a press briefing to mark the launch of the Report of the World Social Situation 2007: The Employment Imperative....
A 'powerful lesson,' said the report, is that liberalization can benefit ordinary citizens, but only after 'the establishment of institutions, legislation and regulations that can limit its adverse effects.' ..." [Xinhua/Factiva]
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Room for improvement: Canada ranks 99th in global tax survey
Toronto While Canada ranks 99th out of 178 for total tax rate and fairs moderately well in ease of paying taxes and administering taxes there is room for improvement in Canada’s corporate taxation system. The study from the World Bank, IFC, and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Paying Taxes 2008, concludes that there is a win-win opportunity for governments and firms if governments simplify tax systems, ease the compliance cost on business, and reduce tax rates.
The study allows direct comparison of tax systems from around the world. It shows how businesses are affected not only by tax rates, but also by the procedural burden of compliance. The report focuses on the number of tax payments made, the time it takes to comply, and the cost of taxes, which is measured by the total tax rate. The total tax rate (TTR) covers five types of taxes that firms pay: profit, social, property, turnover, and other taxes, such as municipal fees and fuel taxes. The steps, time, and cost indicators are used to determine the overall ease of paying taxes.
Canada’s ranking this year may seem a step backwards from its 2006 ranking of 77th out of 175. However, according to Tom O’Brien, a PwC Canada tax partner “Since this years report has been written, there has been the elimination of the Canadian Federal Large Corporation Tax which represents a real savings for many corporations operating in Canada. And, with decreases in Federal and some provincial corporate income tax rates announced for 2007 to 2010, and the harmonization of the Ontario and Canadian Corporate tax systems, Canada’s total tax rate ranking is expected to improve in the near future.”
The top ranking countries with the lowest total tax rate are Vanatu, the Maldives and the United Arab Emirates. The highest are Sierra Leone, Burundi and Gambia. In comparison, the US lands at the 102 spot and the United Kingdom at 52. Seven of the 10 countries in the world with the highest
TTRs are African countries, and it is largely the impact of these seven countries, and the sales and turnover taxes, that drive the average TTR for the sub Saharan African countries to nearly 70% the highest of any geographical grouping.
In terms of time to comply Canada is 28th and 15th for number of payments. These results are a reflection of the overall efficiency of the Canadian tax system, which features a globally competitive Revenue Agency and incorporates technology such as the internet and electronic banking to increase the ease of remitting tax payments and complying with Federal and provincial tax legislation. The ease of paying taxes can range from filing a single online form in Sweden to making 124 payments a year in Belarus. In fact, countries in the former Soviet and Eastern bloc account for six of the bottom 10 countries in terms of the number of tax payments a company has to make.
Four of the bottom 10 countries have a TTR above 100% of commercial profits. That means that a company with sales of 120% of cost of goods sold cannot make enough profit to pay all the business taxes. Seven of the bottom 10 countries have to pay taxes at least once a week and spend at least 65 days per year in the process.
Obrien notes, “There is good news: paying taxes is now easier, especially in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which had the most reforms in 2006- 07. Revenues are growing as well. For example, the Czech Republic saw its tax revenue rise by 2% after reducing the corporate income tax between 2004 and 2005. This is part of a longer global trend the tax burden on businesses has decreased every year since 1985.”
This year, 31 economies improved their business tax systems, and 65 have done so over the past three years. Bulgaria was the top reformer, and Turkey was runner-up.
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Ontario's food banks and wine industry ask Ontarians to buy local and share local
Ontario wineries launch campaign to support food banks through VQA
purchases at LCBO
TORONTO - Wine buyers can help reduce hunger this holiday season by purchasing Ontario VQA wines at LCBO stores throughout the province.
The Ontario wine industry is launching a campaign during the holiday
season to raise funds to benefit those facing hunger in our communities. For
every bottle of VQA wine purchased from now through to December 31 at LCBO
stores, 25 cents will be donated to the Ontario Association of Food Banks
(OAFB). All funds raised will be shared with member food banks proportionately
across the province.
"More consumers are embracing the 'buy local' philosophy including
supporting our quality VQA wines and we really felt it was important to share
in our success by giving back to our own communities," said Norm Beal, Chair
of the Wine Council of Ontario.
The objective of the 'Buy Local, Share Local' campaign is to raise enough
funds to enable members of the Ontario Association of Food Banks to buy
$400,000 worth of food for those in need. One dollar can help acquire and
distribute eight dollars worth of food.
"We live in a very prosperous province, and yet hundreds of thousands of
Ontarians are forced to turn to food banks because they face hunger every
day," said Adam Spence, Executive Director of the OAFB. "We are proud to work
with the Wine Council of Ontario in order to support local food banks and to
encourage Ontarians to support our local producers and neighbours this holiday
season."
"The LCBO is pleased to be a part of this important initiative," said Bob
Peter, LCBO President and CEO. "Our customers are generous supporters of
worthy causes and we're pleased to help facilitate this worthwhile fundraising
project launched by Ontario wineries this holiday season."
The campaign is also extended to participating winery properties
throughout Ontario's wine regions where a portion of proceeds from their
tasting bars will be donated back to local food banks in the region. For more
information about the program, log on to www.winesofontario.ca.
|
How the Falling Dollar Is Saving the Mortgage Market
US Currency Specialist Predicts Immediate Housing & Stock Market Rebound
PALM DESERT, Calif. - Plunging interest rates helped by a lower U.S. dollar are about to rescue both the U.S. housing and stock markets, says US currency specialist Mike McDonald. Not next year, but immediately.
McDonald follows the Dollar for a living and has written two books on
investing: A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller-Coaster Market (June 2000),
and Predict market Swings with Technical Analysis (2002, Wiley & Sons). He is
currently President of Dollar Crisis and Recovery Partners, LP.
McDonald notes that since June, one year U.S. Treasury bill rates have
fallen from 5% to an astonishingly low 3%, while 10-year Treasury rates (to
which 30-year mortgages are indexed) have declined from 5.2% to 4%, with most
of the decline happening in the last month.
McDonald's thesis is that the recent plunge in interest rates has, almost
overnight, changed everything. "The doomsday scenario painted by Wall Street
over subprime mortgages and housing is suddenly way overblown."
<<
WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?
>>
The Fed controls short-term interest rates; longer-term rates are at the
mercy of foreign investors who are the primary buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds
and bills. Japan and China combined own close to 60% of the US Treasury debt.
"The lower U.S. Dollar finally brought in foreign investors looking for
bargains," says Mr. McDonald. "The worry that the Dollar could free-fall does
not seem to worry foreign investors today. I agree. In fact I'm expecting a
higher dollar and lower rates. Right now I believe the dollar is poised for a
significant long term rally."
"With much lower interest rates, many people with variable mortgages will
find they can afford the new re-set payments after all. Foreclosures should
drop dramatically, the housing glut should level off, and housing prices will
then rise. Lower rates should also increase the number of qualified homebuyers
by as much as 40%," says McDonald.
McDonald concludes, "It's not as bad as they say. Many companies -- such
as HSBC, GM, Merrill Lynch, and Citigroup -- used default assumptions based on
higher interest rates to calculate cash flow yields and wrote off billions in
mortgage-backed CDO assets. This could be way off the mark. These CDOs now
look like bargains to me, and cash flows from CDOs should come in much higher
than expected."
|
Study: Growth in real income in Canada and the United States 1980 to 2006
In terms of income per capita, the Canadian economy grew significantly faster than the US economy between 2000 and 2006. Real income per capita in the United States grew by 9.1% during this period, while in Canada real income per capita grew 15.5%, nearly two-thirds faster than the US rate.

This is exactly the opposite of the situation prior to the turn of the millennium, when commodity prices were weak and the Canadian dollar was depreciating, according to a new study.
The study showed that a long downward trend in Canada's fortunes prior to 1999 was reversed in very short order. In three short years, real income relative to the United States returned toward levels not seen since the mid-1980s. And much of this "reversal of fortunes" has been due to Canada's resource economy.
In the two decades prior to 2000, the US economy tended to grow faster than the Canadian economy, regardless of whether labour productivity, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita or real income per capita was examined. In fact, if real income is used as the yardstick for measuring performance, the Canadian economy fares worse than if either labour productivity or real GDP per capita is used.
The study found that between 1980 and 1989 and between 1990 and 1999, labour productivity, real GDP per capita and real income per capita all increased faster in the United States than in Canada. After 2000, labour productivity continued to grow faster in the United States than in Canada, while growth in real GDP per capita was similar between the two countries.
For real income per capita, however, the situation was reversed following the turn of the millennium. Between 2000 and 2006, real income per capita in the United States grew by only 9.1%. In Canada, the increase was 15.5%.
The study suggests that the Canadian economy's growth has shown the advantages of diversification coming from its resource base. A diversified economy has some of the same advantages as a diversified stock portfolio. Some sectors may decline slowly for long periods of time, only to experience a sudden and dramatic change in fortunes. Canada has had just such an experience.
All measures pointed to long-term relative decline in Canadian economy before 2000
Prior to 2000, all measures indicated a long-term decline in the Canadian economy relative to the US economy.
Those were the years in which Canada's resource economy was in decline. Resource output as a percentage of GDP was falling around the world. Relative commodity prices were declining. The earnings foreigners received from their investments in Canada were larger than those that Canadians earned from their foreign investmentsand the difference tended to get larger each year. As a result, real income growth failed to keep pace with real GDP growth.
All that changed with the commodity boom that Canada experienced after 2003. Export prices rose sharply, the Canadian dollar appreciated and prices of imported goods fell. Canada's receipts of income from foreign investments increased dramatically relative to payments.
At the same time, China and India emerged as important players in the world economy, contributing to a dramatic increase in real income growth in Canada relative to GDP growth. This also affected comparisons between Canada and the United States.
Terms of trade improvements boost real income in Canada
An important ratio for determining how changes in commodity prices, imported consumer goods prices and the Canadian dollar will affect Canada is the "terms of trade." This is the price of exports relative to the price of imports.
When the ratio rises, it signals that the value of Canada's exports is increasing. Exports will now purchase more imports than they would have previously. A rise in the terms of trade indicates that the volume of goods and services Canadians can purchase with their earnings is rising.
The study found that Canada's terms of trade, spurred on by higher commodity prices, falling prices of imported goods and a higher dollar, were a driving force behind real income growth in Canada. The terms of trade rose noticeably, increasing the purchasing power of Canadian real incomes between 2002 and 2006.
At the same time, real income growth in the United States was held back by the rising commodity prices. As a result, Canadian real income growth significantly outpaced American real income growth after 2002.
Net income from abroad a factor in real income growth
The study also found that after 2000, international investment income contributed to real income growth each year, unlike during the 1980s and 1990s when it tended to detract from real income growth.
Between 1980 and 2001, the net amount of income sent abroad each year increased. In 1980, Canadians earned $8.5 billion less on their foreign investments than foreigners derived from their investments in Canada.
Over the next 20 years, the amount of income earned by foreigners from their investments in Canada increased at a faster rate than the income Canadians earned from their foreign investments.
By 1999, Canadian investments abroad were earning $33.2 billion less than foreign investments in Canada.
Beginning in 2000, and accelerating from 2005 to 2006, the income earned by Canadian investments abroad rose sharply. The earnings from foreign investments in Canada failed to keep pace, and the amount of money sent abroad each year became smaller. By 2006, it had shrunk to $10.8 billion, close to the same balance observed in 1980.
Note to readers
Real income refers to real Net National Income (NNI), which is a measure of the real purchasing power of income that remains in Canada after returns from international investment and capital consumption are accounted for.
Real NNI is an officially recognized accounting aggregate in the 1993 System of National Accounts. It is related to real gross domestic product (GDP) through three accounting differences.
The first is the trading gain, which adjusts for relative price changesprimarily, the terms of trade. The trading gain is captured using the same deflator for exports and imports. When the trading gain is added to real GDP, the resulting measure is referred to as real Gross Domestic Income (GDI).
The second accounting difference is net income from abroad. When foreigners invest in Canada they earn a return that can be repatriated. Similarly, the return that Canadians earn on their foreign investments can be returned to Canada. The net flow each year raises or lowers the earnings that accrue to Canadians. When the real net flow is added to real GDI, the result is real Gross National Income (GNI). This aggregate was formerly known as real Gross National Product (GNP).
The third accounting difference is depreciation of the existing physical capital stock. Each year wear and tear, obsolescence or accidents lowers the stock of physical capital. If it is not maintained or replaced, the stock of physical capital would be reduced each year, eventually leading to a declining standard of living in Canada. When real depreciation is added to real GNI, the real NNI aggregate is generated. This aggregate was formerly known as real Net National Product (NNP).
|
Consumer prices rose by 2.4% in October 2007 compared with the same month in 2006, a slightly slower rate of growth than the 2.5% posted in September.
Gasoline and the two main components of owned accommodationmortgage interest cost and homeowners' replacement costwere the primary sources of October's increase.

Excluding energy, the all-items index climbed 1.9% in the 12 months preceding October 2007, a slowdown from the 2.1% growth recorded in September. Lower prices for the purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles were the main factor behind the slowdown of this index.
The Bank of Canada's core index, used to monitor the inflation control target, increased by 1.8% between October 2006 and October 2007, a slowdown compared with the rate of 2.0% in September. This was the weakest growth of this index since June 2006. This slowdown was mainly the result of lower prices for the purchase and leasing of passenger vehicles.
Consumer prices fell by 0.3% in October compared with the preceding month. This decrease was primarily the result of lower gasoline prices. The core index was down 0.2% over that period. Significant downward pressure on both indexes came from lower prices for traveller accommodation (-8.8%), passenger vehicles (-1.4%) and women's clothing (-2.3%).
The all-items index excluding energy declined 0.1% between September and October, following a 0.2% growth between August and September.
Gasoline drives growth in year-over-year consumer prices for a second straight month
The upward pressure on consumer prices between October 2006 and October 2007 was driven by gasoline, as it was in September.
In October 2007, the price at the pump rose 13.5% compared with the same month in 2006, a change due largely to a drop in last year's gasoline prices.
Upward pressure from the cost of owned accommodation (+4.8%) continued in October, due mainly to the growth in mortgage interest cost, homeowners' replacement cost and property taxes.
Mortgage interest cost rose 6.7% in October compared with 6.4% in September. October's growth was the highest since June 1991. This upturn is more a reflection of increases in amounts borrowed because of higher new housing prices than of increases associated with the renewal of mortgage loans at higher rates.
The growth in homeowners' replacement costs (+5.0%) has been slowing for several months and is now in line with the changes observed at the start of 2006. This slowdown follows the change in the evolution of new housing prices. Homeowners' replacement cost represents the worn-out structural portion of housing and is estimated using new housing prices (excluding land).
Property taxes were up 3.8% in October compared with October 2006. Property tax hikes were higher in Newfoundland and Labrador (+8.8%) and in Alberta (+6.0%). In both provinces, tax rates fell but a re-assessment of properties led to an increase in the amounts paid. The only province in which residents paid less in property tax was Manitoba (-1.5%). Properties were not assessed in this province in 2007 and the amounts paid out in property tax credits for education rose.
Canadians also had to pay 3.0% more for restaurant meals in October 2007 compared with the same month last year. Higher prices for dairy products and certain meats contributed to the increase, along with the cumulative impact of higher minimum wages in almost all provinces and territories during the 12-month period.
A 2.4% price decrease for the purchase and leasing price of passenger vehicles was the main factor in dampening the rise in consumer prices. This decline was due mainly to an increase in discounts given by manufacturers on 2007 models. This index continued the downward trend that began in July 2007.
Prices for fresh vegetables went down 14.6% in October. A year-over-year drop of this magnitude had not occurred since June 1996. It follows on the heels of the 9.2% drop recorded in September.
A 13.8% decline in prices for computer equipment and supplies also moderated the advance in the all-items index. However, this decline was weaker than decreases observed during the first eight months of 2007.
CPI growth faster in the Atlantic provinces
Gasoline prices and mortgage interest cost were among the five main contributors to the rise in the all-items index in every province.
The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in all Atlantic provinces, where higher gasoline prices were among the main contributors to the acceleration.
The rate of growth of the CPI surpassed the national average in Prince Edward Island (+3.1%) and New Brunswick (+3.3%), along with Alberta (+5.0%) and Saskatchewan (+3.6%). CPI growth remained stable in Saskatchewan, but increased slightly in Alberta in response to a surge in natural gas prices and property taxes.
The upward movement of consumer prices slowed substantially in Manitoba (+1.9%), mainly because gasoline prices did not rise as much in October as in September and property taxes fell 1.5%.
Monthly change: Gasoline drags consumer prices down between September and October 2007
Consumer prices fell 0.3% between September and October 2007, after posting growth of 0.2% in the previous month.
This turnaround stemmed mainly from changes in the variation in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, gasoline prices fell 3.3% in October after a 0.8% rise between August and September.
The price of traveller accommodation also fell by 8.8% as the high season came to an end. This followed a comparable decline of 10.4% between September and October 2006.
A 2.3% decline in the price of women's clothing also had a significant dampening effect on the all-items index. Lower prices stemmed from specials at several retailers.
The downward movement in these areas was partially offset by increases in other components, including property taxes, which were up 3.8%. Since the change in this component is only calculated annually it has a significant impact on the monthly index.
A 0.8% gain in mortgage interest cost also played a large role, a pace unchanged from last month. The rise in new housing prices had a greater impact than the renewal of mortgage loans at higher interest rates in October.
The 3.3% increase in natural gas prices also moderated the drop in the all-items index.
| Consumer Price Index and major components |
|
(2002=100) |
| |
Relative importance1 |
October 2007 |
September 2007 |
October 2006 |
September to October 2007 |
October 2006 to October 2007 |
| |
|
Unadjusted |
| |
|
|
|
|
% change |
| All-items |
100.002 |
111.6 |
111.9 |
109.0 |
-0.3 |
2.4 |
| Food |
17.04 |
110.7 |
110.9 |
109.2 |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
| Shelter |
26.62 |
118.7 |
117.8 |
114.1 |
0.8 |
4.0 |
| Household operations and furnishings |
11.10 |
103.4 |
103.7 |
102.2 |
-0.3 |
1.2 |
| Clothing and footwear |
5.36 |
97.1 |
97.4 |
97.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
| Transportation |
19.88 |
115.2 |
116.9 |
111.7 |
-1.5 |
3.1 |
| Health and personal care |
4.73 |
107.5 |
107.6 |
106.1 |
-0.1 |
1.3 |
| Recreation, education and reading |
12.20 |
102.7 |
103.4 |
100.9 |
-0.7 |
1.8 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products |
3.07 |
126.3 |
126.6 |
122.2 |
-0.2 |
3.4 |
| All-items (1992=100) |
|
132.9 |
133.2 |
129.7 |
-0.2 |
2.5 |
| Special aggregates |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Goods |
48.78 |
107.1 |
107.8 |
105.6 |
-0.6 |
1.4 |
| Services |
51.22 |
116.1 |
115.9 |
112.2 |
0.2 |
3.5 |
| All-items excluding food and energy |
73.57 |
109.6 |
109.7 |
107.5 |
-0.1 |
2.0 |
| Energy |
9.38 |
134.5 |
136.6 |
123.8 |
-1.5 |
8.6 |
| Core CPI3 |
82.71 |
110.3 |
110.5 |
108.4 |
-0.2 |
1.8 |
| 1. | 2005 CPI basket weights at April 2007 prices, Canada - Effective May 2007. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.ca/english/sdds/index.htm). |
| 2. | Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. |
| 3. | The measure of Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excludes from the All-items CPI the effect of changes in indirect taxes and eight of the most volatile components identified by the Bank of Canada: fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuel; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers' supplies. For additional information on Core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/en/inflation/index.htm). |
|
| Consumer Price Index by province, and for Whitehorse, Yellowknife and Iqaluit |
|
(2002=100) |
| |
October 2007 |
September 2007 |
October 2006 |
September to October 2007 |
October 2006 to October 2007 |
| |
Unadjusted |
| |
|
|
|
% change |
| Newfoundland and Labrador |
111.2 |
111.1 |
108.9 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
| Prince Edward Island |
114.1 |
114.0 |
110.7 |
0.1 |
3.1 |
| Nova Scotia |
112.6 |
112.9 |
110.1 |
-0.3 |
2.3 |
| New Brunswick |
111.4 |
112.0 |
107.8 |
-0.5 |
3.3 |
| Québec |
110.5 |
110.5 |
108.4 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
| Ontario |
110.9 |
111.0 |
108.4 |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
| Manitoba |
111.0 |
111.8 |
108.9 |
-0.7 |
1.9 |
| Saskatchewan |
113.0 |
113.4 |
109.1 |
-0.4 |
3.6 |
| Alberta |
118.6 |
119.4 |
113.0 |
-0.7 |
5.0 |
| British Columbia |
110.0 |
110.5 |
108.3 |
-0.5 |
1.6 |
| Whitehorse |
110.4 |
110.8 |
106.3 |
-0.4 |
3.9 |
| Yellowknife |
111.1 |
111.6 |
107.1 |
-0.4 |
3.7 |
| Iqaluit (Dec. 2002=100) |
108.1 |
109.1 |
104.2 |
-0.9 |
3.7 |
| 1. | View the geographical details for the city of Whitehorse, the city of Yellowknife and the town of Iqaluit . |
| 2. | Part of the increase first recorded in the shelter index for Yellowknife for December 2004 inadvertently reflected rent increases that actually occurred earlier. As a result, the change in the shelter index was overstated in December 2004, and was understated in the previous two years. The shelter index series for Yellowknife has been corrected from December 2002. In addition, the Yellowknife All-items CPI and some Yellowknife special aggregate index series have also changed. Data for Canada and all other provinces and territories were not affected. |
|
|
Liberalize the market to revive the forestry sector
MONTREAL - Promoting the creation of a competitive market for timber would help the forest industry restructure and meet international competition more effectively. The industry could thereby play its major role in Quebec's development without resorting to short-term solutions based on subsidies and protectionist regulations.
In an Economic Note published by the Montreal Economic Institute, André
Duchesne, former president of the Quebec forest engineers professional
corporation and of the Association des industries forestières du Québec,
explains that "a return to competitiveness will necessarily require
consolidating the timber taken from public land in the most profitable mills,
which will have to increase their size and productivity."
In dealing with the impact of a crisis such as that suffered by the
forest industry, the usual reaction is to demand government assistance, mainly
in the form of tax relief, investment assistance and subsidies carefully
crafted to be tolerated by taxpayers and foreign competitors in the context of
international trade agreements. Such an approach has just a short-term effect
and cannot rescue the forest sector sustainably from the slump it has fallen
into.
Creating a competitive market for forest products and services
The Forest Act does not permit the transfer of wood from one mill to
another without the express authorization of the minister of natural resources
and wildlife. Decisions are discretionary. Regional self-sufficiency is
favoured at the expense of the industry's viability. These constraints stand
in the way of achieving the economies of scale and the productivity increases
that consolidation of operations is likely to bring about. Moreover, the
minister is prevented, both legally and politically, from revoking a mill's
timber supply and forest management agreement, even if the mill is closed,
unless the timelines set out in the Act have expired and as long as there is
any hope of the mill reopening. Taking account of the reduced harvests decided
on by the chief forester, the Act could be revised to enable the minister
immediately to rescind the agreements linked to closed mills.
Under the proposal developed by Mr. Duchesne, the forest land freed up in
this way could come under a new type of contract, unconnected to a mill, that
would authorize its holder to sell timber rights on the market in exchange for
an annual rent and compliance with conditions ensuring the longevity of wood
and wildlife resources.
This new type of contract for public land would favour the development of
a forest management industry distinct from the traditional forest industry,
for which this activity is merely a cost to be reduced as much as possible.
The new approach would put companies in charge of the integrated management of
all forest resources. It would also lead the industry to use market forces to
help deal with the old conflict pitting timber users against hunters,
fishermen, campers, vacationers, nature lovers and other forest users. In
fact, by attempting to optimize their income, the holders of such contracts
would be open to demand for each of these uses as well as to the cost of
supplying each forest good and service. Because of the closings that have
already occurred, a market for millions of cubic metres of timber could be
created, accessible to any new or existing mill able to pay the competitive
value of this wood. The most profitable mills would be the most likely to use
this supply since they have the most room for manoeuvre and the greatest
chances of development.
The hardships faced by the forest industry
It should be recalled that a number of factors have gradually made the
forest sector vulnerable and have led to the closing of one-sixth of all mills
in Quebec, involving the loss of more than 10,000 well-paying jobs. These
factors include:
<<
- The rise of the Canadian dollar, making wood products more expensive to
export.
- Higher energy prices, making the drying of paper more costly.
- The capital tax imposed by both levels of government, to be abolished
only very gradually.
- U.S. intervention in the lumber sector, which has penalized the
industry.
- The high (and rising) cost of raw material, compared to world market
levels.
>>
The Economic Note, titled How can the crisis in the forest sector be resolved?, was prepared by André Duchesne, F.Eng., former president of the Quebec forest engineers professional corporation and of the Association des industries forestières du Québec. He was awarded the Montreal Economic Institute's George Petty Entrepreneurial Idea Prize for 2007.
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Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report
OTTAWA The Bank of Canada today released its October Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.
There have been a number of significant economic and financial developments since the July Monetary Policy Report Update. Against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, the Canadian economy has been stronger than projected and is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected.
Since the July Update, the outlook for the U.S. economy has weakened. The Canadian dollar has appreciated sharply, and credit conditions have tightened. Despite these tighter credit conditions, the momentum of domestic demand in Canada is expected to remain strong. The combined effect of a weaker U.S. outlook and a higher assumed level for the Canadian dollar implies, however, that net exports will exert a more significant drag on the economy in 2008 and 2009 than previously expected. As a result, Canada's gross domestic product is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2.3 per cent in 2008, and 2.5 per cent in 2009.
With the economy moving back towards balance, and with the direct effect of the stronger Canadian dollar on consumer prices, core inflation is projected to gradually decline to 2 per cent in the second half of 2008. Total CPI inflation is expected to peak at about 3 per cent later this year and then move back down to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2008.
But there are a number of upside and downside risks to the Bank's inflation projection. The main upside risk is that excess demand in the Canadian economy could persist longer than projected. The main downside risk is that output and inflation could be lower if the Canadian dollar were to be persistently higher than the assumed average level of 98 cents U.S. for reasons not associated with demand for Canadian products.
All factors considered, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, with perhaps a slight tilt to the downside.
Against this backdrop, the Bank left its key policy rate unchanged on 5 September and 16 October at 4.50 per cent. The Bank judges, at this time, that the current level of the target for the overnight rate is consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
|
Ontarians need to overcome complacency and act now to achieve future prosperity potential
Task Force on Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Progress urges
Ontario Government and all Ontarians to move forward on the 2020
Prosperity Agenda
TORONTO - As Ontario's Government begins its new mandate, it has a great opportunity to redouble its efforts at tackling a Prosperity Agenda to reach Ontario's economic potential by 2020. Ontario is one of the most prosperous and competitive jurisdictions in the world, especially among those outside North America. But we're not living up to our full potential, and Ontarians need to shift their attitude from a collective complacency to a shared determination to achieve this potential. The Task Force on Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Progress in its Sixth Annual Report, Path to the 2020 Prosperity Agenda, released today at the Canadian Business Outlook 2008 Conference, proposes the 2020 Prosperity Agenda as a way of invigorating the debate.
In new research released today, the Task Force confirmed that Ontario's
economy is one of the world's most successful when compared to similar regions
outside North America. Ontario's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita ranks
third among a peer group of 15 most populous and prosperous international
regions.(*) But against a similar set of North American jurisdictions(xx)
Ontario continues to fall further behind. Two decades ago, Ontario stood close
to the median of the 14 most populous US states and Ontario and Quebec. It now
stands second to last. This gap represents lost prosperity, which negatively
affects Ontarians at all income levels. In its Report last year, the Task
Force set out an Agenda for achieving this potential by 2020. This year, the
Task Force identifies the key first steps to put Ontario on the path to
achieving this Agenda.
The Task Force, a group of industry and academic leaders, chaired by
Roger Martin, Dean of the Rotman School of Management, was established in 2001
to stimulate businesses, governments, educational institutions, and
individuals to increase the pace of innovation and competitiveness. That will
ensure a continuing increase in our standard of living.
In Path to the 2020 Prosperity Agenda, the Task Force reports that
Ontario's GDP per capita is now $6,000, or 12 percent, behind the median of
the 16 jurisdictions, up from the 2005 gap of $5,500 in constant dollars
(2006). GDP measures the value created by workers and firms in Ontario from
the human, physical, and natural resources in the province.
"Closing this gap is not an unrealistic aspiration. As recently as twenty
years ago, we were in the upper half of our peer group," added Martin.
The Task Force concludes that Ontario's competitiveness is important for
the average Ontario family. Its research shows that, if we met our prosperity
potential, families would gain $8,600 in disposable, after tax income - every
year. It also indicates that families across the income spectrum are affected
by our unfulfilled prosperity potential. As Ontario's prosperity gap widened
through the 1990s, Ontario's high- and middle-income families fell behind
their US counterparts. Traditionally, lower income Ontarians have outperformed
their counterparts - but this advantage is fading as we fall further behind
the US peers in overall prosperity.
Governments in Ontario would also generate an additional $27 billion in
tax revenue, an amount that could fund important social and capital
investments.
Lagging productivity continues to be the biggest barrier to closing the
gap. The Task Force points out that productivity growth is more than improved
efficiency. According to Martin, "more important, we need to create more value
that customers want in our products and services. That requires innovation and
upgrading - such as has occurred in the Ontario wine industry with the
development of high value ice wine and its consumer acceptance around the
world."
"We were hoping that competitiveness and prosperity issues would be more
important in the recent provincial election," said Martin. "But, as the
Government charts its course in its new mandate, we're optimistic that it will
take them up as important areas to address."
The Task Force is proposing a wide range of initiatives to encourage and
support innovation, but is placing special emphasis this year on tax changes
as the Government prepares its first budget.
A priority is to build a smarter tax system to raise motivations for
businesses to invest. Canada and Ontario have among the highest tax rates on
business investment in the world. The Federal Government is taking dramatic
action to give Canada an environment more conducive to business investment.
Its recent economic statement puts in place significant reductions in
corporate income tax rates. Ontario needs to follow suit. It also needs to
speed up the demise of the capital tax, currently scheduled to end in 2010.
"In the scheme of things, these are easy changes to make," said Martin. "But
the Province needs to take bold action in addressing a major weakness of our
tax system and replace our provincial sales tax with a value added tax and
then harmonize its collection with the Federal GST. Our research and the
research of others show that this move would stimulate investment and create
jobs better than any other tax reform."
Tax changes would help lift Ontario's anemic business investment in
productivity- and wage-enhancing machinery, equipment, and software. But we
also need initiatives to welcome more robust business competition and ways to
ensure highly capable managers are leading the pace.
The Task Force continues to urge Ontarians to increase their investment
in education. Its research in the area of poverty points to the importance of
a high school diploma and other formal skills. At the post secondary level,
the Task Force urges an examination of the balance between research and
student experience in our universities. "We've built a solid research
capability in Ontario's universities," said Martin. "But there's evidence that
the day-to-day experience of students may be suffering from crowded classrooms
and unavailable professors. We need to understand the tradeoff better."
In summary, Martin said, "We are calling for a shifting of our overall
attitude from collective complacency to a shared determination to close the
prosperity gap. Let's take pride in what Ontarians have accomplished; but
let's acknowledge we could do better and put ourselves on a path to achieving
our prosperity potential."
<<
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Path to the 2020 Prosperity Agenda
Attitudes: Accept the challenge; overcome complacency
- Government, business, labour, and community leaders need to turn up
the volume on the importance of prosperity and productivity and
prosperity
Investment: Focus on people and technology
- Invest in focused and innovative ways to fight poverty
- Raise awareness among all Ontarians of the benefits of education
- Continue investments in post secondary education
- Assess the tradeoff between research and the student experience in
our universities
- Step up business investments in information and communication
technology
Motivations: Pursue smarter taxation
- Convert the provincial sales tax to a value added tax harmonized
with the GST
- Remove the capital tax immediately
- Reduce corporate income tax rates
- Continue attacking high marginal tax rates for lower income
Ontarians
Structures: Place a premium on creativity and innovation
- Focus venture capital efforts on quality, not quantity
- Continue to expand innovation policy to include building management
capabilities
- Pursue the reduction of barriers to investment and trade
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
The complete report can be downloaded directly from:
http://www.competeprosper.ca/index.php/work/annual_reports/annual_report_
|
Business Thought Leaders to Speak at Canadian Business Magazine "Outlook 2008" Conference Today, Sponsored by Accenture
Roger Martin of Rotman School of Management and Jean-Francois Courville of MFC Global to be keynote speakers
TORONTO - Canadian Business magazine, in association with Accenture, will present Canadian Business Outlook 2008, an exclusive event for senior executives on Nov. 19, 2007, featuring some of Canada's most innovative business thought leaders. Featured keynote speakers at the half-day conference include Jean-Francois Courville, president and COO of MFC Global Investment Management, and Roger Martin of the Rotman School of Management.
Featured panelists and speakers will include Bill Morris, managing director of Accenture Canada; David Wolf, head of Canadian economics and chief strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc.; Jeff Sanford, writer for Canadian Business; and Benjamin Tal, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets. Time 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19, 2007 Rosewater Club, 19 Toronto St., Toronto
|
Confidence rises with dollar strength: Survey
Market concerns about long term impact of credit issue spilling over
TORONTO - TNS Canadian Facts' Consumer Confidence Index for November shows that consumers have set aside any concern about the impact of the credit issue and overall U.S. weakness, to arrive at unprecedented levels of economic confidence.
"With confidence overflowing, consumers are poised to open their wallets
this holiday season," said Richard Jenkins, vice-president of TNS Canadian
Facts and director of the marketing research firm's monthly Consumer
Confidence Index tracking study.
The Present Situation Index, which captures evaluations of the overall
state of the economy and the employment situation, now stands at 122.8. This
represents an increase from 119.8 (2.5% increase) and the highest level in the
more than three years that TNS has been conducting the study. Two-thirds of
Canadians think the economy is very or fairly good at this time.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' estimation of the
economy, household income and employment in six months also rose for the
second consecutive month. The November index value is 103.6 compared to 103.1
in October and 99.5 in September.
The Buy Index, which gauges the degree to which people think the current
period is a good time to make major purchases, continues to exhibit the
volatility it has shown over the past two years. The index now sits at 96.0,
which is well below the highs of 2004 but well above the September value
(91.3). At present, 42 per cent think it is a good time to make major
purchases (37% think it is neither a good time nor a bad time).
"With employment at record levels and the high dollar strengthening
purchasing power, consumer optimism is translating into an early good news
story for retailers as they enter the important holiday season as long as they
can head off the resurgence of cross-border shopping," added Jenkins.
The survey found that Canadians plan to spend $986 on holiday gifts,
decorations or other holiday items this season, a significant 12 per cent
increase over estimated holiday spending in 2006, which averaged $877.
Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians' attitudes about the economy
each month and is part of a global study conducted by TNS in 18 countries.
Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is
changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index. The
Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm's national bi-weekly telephone
omnibus service, TNS Express Telephone. A total of 1,015 nationally
representative Canadian adults were interviewed between November 5 and 8. The
survey results are considered accurate to 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out
of 20.
|
Rising energy and food costs to push U.S. inflation rate to four per cent by fall of 2008
U.S. TIPS and Canadian RRBs good investment bet
TORONTO - Rising global energy and food prices are fuelling headline U.S. inflation that could hit four per cent by next fall, according to a new report from CIBC World Markets.
The report finds that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which focuses on
core CPI (excluding energy and food prices), will ignore these headline
inflationary concerns in the near-term while it focuses on stimulating the
economy and keeping it from falling into a recession.
"These secular inflation threats from food and energy will be set aside
by the Fed, which will be clearly focused on the cyclical threat to growth
from a collapsing housing sector," says Avery Shenfeld, Senior Economist with
CIBC World Markets and author of the report.
Mr. Shenfeld notes that the Fed's focus on core CPI made sense in a world
in which gasoline or food prices went up and then came back down but that four
key longer-term trends are now driving energy and food inflation in the U.S.
First, rapid energy demand in developing nations has stretched supply and
pushed crude oil prices to record levels. Second, energy price hikes combined
with a weakening greenback are increasing America's current account and trade
imbalance. Third, higher energy costs are being passed on to consumers and
businesses through a wide range of core items from airline tickets prices to
trucking costs to petrochemical costs for products like plastic. Finally, the
policy response to subsidize ethanol production has seen a rising share of
U.S. agriculture devoted to growing corn for ethanol production and this has
pushed up feed grain prices and in turn meat, dairy and egg prices.
Mr. Shenfeld expects the Fed will cut rates in the short-term to kick-
start the economy and that improvement will begin in the latter half of next
year. This combined with continued pressures on energy and food prices will
see headline inflation continue to increase. "If, as we expect, this proves to
be no worse that a mid-cycle slowdown, the economy won't open up enough slack
to materially change the trajectory for inflation when better growth resumes
in the second half of 2008.
"By fall of 2008, an economy that entered a slowdown with a headline
inflation rate above three per cent could be facing a headline rate taking aim
at four per cent. As a result, the Fed may be rushing to re-tighten (rates)
before year-end 2008."
The report notes that this approach will see U.S. Treasuries, and by
extension, Canadian bonds, feel the heat of rising short rates, and that there
will be doubts about the ability of the renewed tightening to quell more
ingrained inflation pressures. On a relative basis, this will make inflation-
linked bonds a better play.
"Unlike the Fed's focus on core CPI, the payoff on U.S. Treasury Inflated
Protected Securities (TIPS) is tied to headline CPI," adds Mr. Shenfeld.
"Right now, on a 10-year TIP, the implied inflation rate as measured by the
spread to nominal Treasuries, is roughly two and a half per cent. TIPS will
outperform Treasuries to the extent that inflation exceeds that implicit
projection over the life of the bond, or to the extent that the spread widens
as inflation expectations change."
He also believes Canadian Real Return Bonds (RRBs) may benefit by late
2008, although this will be muted by the lagging impact of a stronger currency
in quelling import inflation. "Add in a GST cut, and we can't see Canadian CPI
topping two and a half per cent at any time in 2008. As well, even if it
watches only core inflation, by the Canadian definition, the Bank of Canada
will be taking meat, packaged foods and other such products into account.
"Finally, the implied inflation rate in RRBs has not been as well
correlated with on-the ground headline inflation. Still, with inflation fears
in Canada likely to escalate as the U.S. economy rebounds later in 2008, RRBs
should still outperform a threatened nominal Government of Canada bond
market."
The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at:
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occrept63.pdf
|
Canada's Current economic conditions up to October 2007
Statscan - Output and employment continued to expand steadily, unfazed by the late-summer turmoil in credit markets and the rapid ascent of the Canadian dollar.
The resiliency of the economy reflects a number of factors. While the turmoil in financial markets disrupted commercial paper in August, total short-term business credit grew steadily in August and September as borrowers switched to other instruments. The stock market recovered in September and October from small losses over the summer.
In no other sector was the resiliency of the economy to shocks better demonstrated than in manufacturing. Even after the exchange rate hit parity with the US, two indicators of manufacturing remained positive in October. The Business Conditions Survey reported that more manufacturers plan to expand than to reduce both output and payrolls in the fourth quarter. This was borne out by factory employment in October, which held onto its gain over the summer despite growing reports of shortages of both skilled and unskilled labour. The steady rise in the Canadian dollar will further test the resiliency of manufacturers.
Household demand rebounded strongly in Central Canada in August and September. Quebec took the lead with a jump of almost 50% in housing starts in September. The unusual strength was largely due to the construction of housing for the elderly in Montréal. The increase of almost 1,000 new and vacant multiple units in this city since its low in April, and the summer slowdown in sales of existing homes indicate that the underlying trend is more modest. However, new home prices were up only 4.3% year-over-year, one of the lowest in the country, making owning a home easier. Retail sales saw an end to two straight monthly decreases.
Housing starts in Ontario recovered to near their high set in January, while retail sales increased 2%, driven by a wide range of goods. At the same time, 30,000 more American tourists were visiting the province than in July, despite the higher Canadian dollar. Moreover, the higher Canadian dollar does not appear to have discouraged employment either, which picked up throughout the summer, stimulating labour income. In October, Ontario posted the strongest year-over-year increase in employment (+2.5%) since July 2003. This represents 164,000 more jobs in the past 12 months. Manufacturing sales fell for the fourth time in five months in August, largely due to the automobile industry.
Retail sales fell in British Columbia for the first time in 2007 after slowing over the summer. Shipments, however, halted a three-month slide. Shipments of metals rebounded sharply, offsetting the negative impact on production of the forestry strike. The drop in forestry products aggravated the decrease in exports to Japan, where the gross domestic product fell in the second quarter.
In the Prairies, shipments also strengthened, climbing 2.6% to reverse decreases in June and July. Saskatchewan has been the exception in this region for a number of months, recording its sixth increase in retail sales since the start of 2007. Its Canada-high year-over-year growth of 13.5% occurs at a time when property values are on the rise. In Saskatoon, for example, new home prices have risen about 50%, driven by employment growth of nearly 10% in only two years.
|
Leading indicators October 2007
Statscan - The composite index rose 0.1% in October after a downward-revised gain of 0.3% in September. Of the 10 components, 6 increased, while 4 declined, the highest number of components to decline since October 2006. The weakness was concentrated in housing starts and new orders, which returned to more normal levels after exceptional gains in September. Growth was sustained by consumer spending and the financial sector.
The housing index fell 1.7% after three large monthly gains. Both components declined. Existing home sales in autumn retreated from the record highs set during the summer, while housing starts returned to more normal levels after a burst in the construction of multiple units sent overall starts to a 29-year high in September.
The underlying trend in household spending remained positive. Spending on durable goods rose another 0.6%, and auto sales remained strong in October. The personal sector was the driving force behind the growth in services employment in October.
The Toronto stock market continued to set new records. While energy stocks continued to benefit from record oil prices, there were notable gains in technology stocks as well.
Manufacturers continued to be squeezed between sluggish export demand from the US and the rising Canadian dollar. The US leading indicator eked out a 0.1% increase, as strong financial and labour markets overcame more declines in housing. New orders received by Canadian manufacturers fell 1.7%. Small declines in the average workweek and the ratio of sales to inventories are probably more indicative of the underlying trend in manufacturing.
| Leading indicators |
| |
May 2007 |
June 2007 |
July 2007 |
August 2007 |
September 2007 |
October 2007 |
Last month of data available |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% change |
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) |
226.3 |
227.0 |
227.8 |
228.4 |
229.0 |
229.2 |
0.1 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 |
147.7 |
146.4 |
148.4 |
149.6 |
151.3 |
148.8 |
-1.7 |
| Business and personal services employment (thousands) |
2,836 |
2,842 |
2,850 |
2,851 |
2,863 |
2,867 |
0.1 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) |
13,344 |
13,518 |
13,683 |
13,782 |
13,918 |
14,032 |
0.8 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 |
163,100 |
163,530 |
164,367 |
165,492 |
166,699 |
168,128 |
0.9 |
| U.S. Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 |
126.9 |
126.8 |
126.7 |
127.0 |
126.9 |
127.0 |
0.1 |
| Manufacturing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Average workweek (hours) |
38.5 |
38.5 |
38.5 |
38.5 |
38.4 |
38.3 |
-0.3 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 |
27,275 |
27,329 |
27,148 |
26,908 |
27,022 |
26,560 |
-1.7 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 |
1.84 |
1.84 |
1.84 |
1.84 |
1.84 |
1.83 |
-0.015 |
| Retail trade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 |
2,633 |
2,652 |
2,673 |
2,680 |
2,703 |
2,721 |
0.7 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 |
8,950 |
9,033 |
9,150 |
9,195 |
9,251 |
9,306 |
0.6 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator |
228.6 |
228.9 |
229.3 |
228.3 |
230.1 |
229.2 |
-0.4 |
| 1. | Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service). |
| 2. | Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items. |
| 3. | The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding. |
| 4. | The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month. |
| 5. | Difference from previous month. |
|
|
Study: Multinationals in Canada
Foreign-controlled businesses operating in Canada make large investments in knowledge creation via investments in innovation, advanced technology and skilled labour, according to a new report assessing the activities of foreign multinationals.
These investments often translate into superior market outcomes, as foreign-controlled businesses often enjoy relatively high rates of productivity compared with many of their domestic competitors.
The labour productivity of foreign-controlled plants in the manufacturing sector has increased considerably relative to domestic plants over the last three decades.
The report puts into perspective the results of a large number of analytical studies conducted at Statistics Canada that examined the importance of multinationals to the Canadian economy.
Foreign multinationals make valuable contributions to the Canadian economy. Their plants not only have higher productivity, they tend to be more capital intensive, pay higher wages, and hire more white-collar workers than their domestic competitors.
The higher productivity of foreign-controlled plants stems from a variety of factors, such as size, industry membership, technology use, and research and development activity. When these factors are not taken into account, the performance gap between foreign multinationals and domestic companies is large.
But even after differences in size and industry are accounted for, multinationals still enjoy performance advantages over many domestic companies.
Little difference between foreign multinationals and domestic firms with an external outlook
The report cautions against concluding that the plants of foreign multinationals are "simply better" than their Canadian-owned competitors.
Canadian firms that develop an external orientationthose that are active in export markets or that have production activities outside Canadaoften stack up well against foreign multinationals.
New research described in the report found that there is little difference between foreign-controlled plants and Canadian-controlled plants whose parent has an international orientation.
These two groups have very similar profiles when it comes to measures of value-added per worker, gross output per worker, wages, skilled workers and technology use.
In terms of research and development and innovation, Canadian companies with an external orientation exhibit slightly better performance than foreign multinationals after differences in firm size, age and industry are taken into account.
Foreign multinationals have long had a substantial presence in domestic markets
Several of the studies described in this report show that multinational firms have long had a substantial presence in Canadian markets in terms of their share of corporate assets and revenues.
The studies note that changes in the amount of multinational activity in Canada in recent decades have coincided with important transitions in the regulatory regime governing foreign direct investment.
The share of non-financial assets under foreign control fell during the more restrictive era of the 1970s and the early 1980s, and rebounded with the subsequent introduction of a less restrictive regulatory environment.
As a result, current levels of multinational activity are similar to historical levels. By 2005, the overall level of foreign control in non-financial industries was at almost the same level as it was during the mid-1960s.
Foreign control is concentrated in the non-financial sector of the economy, especially when measured by operating revenue. This is due, in part, to stricter regulations on foreign control in the finance and insurance industries, especially in banking.
Foreign companies often gravitate to sectors of the economy where their competitive advantages can be more fully exploited. These include the sectors where economies of returns to scale and capital intensity are large, and high-tech sectors, where competition is often based on new innovative technologies.
Since 2000, the foreign-controlled share of operating revenue in non-financial industries has been fairly constant, hovering around 30%.
In terms of assets, foreign-controlled corporations accounted for 27.2% of assets held in non-financial industries in 2005. This has changed little since 2001.
However, these foreign companies are playing an increasingly important role in shaping Canada's economic performance, as the overall contribution that they make to aggregate productivity growth has increased over the last three decades.
Foreign-controlled multinationals have contributed positively to productivity in three ways. First, productivity growth has been relatively high in foreign-controlled plants compared with domestic plants. Second, there are productivity spillovers from foreign-controlled plants to domestic producers. Third, mergers involving foreign producers more frequently lead to gains in productivity, wages, profitability or market share than do mergers between domestic firms.
About two-thirds of labour productivity growth in manufacturing during the last two decades came from foreign-controlled firms, despite the fact that they accounted for less than 40% of employment.
Foreign multinationals contribute to head-office employment growth
The report also notes the impact that foreign companies have had on recent trends in head-office employment. It found little evidence that foreign takeovers lead, in the aggregate, to hollowing out, that is, multinationals shedding head-office employment and moving it abroad.
The impact of foreign takeovers between 1999 and 2005 has not been to reduce the number of head offices in Canada or head-office employment. As a result of foreign takeovers, more new head offices were created than lost from 1999 to 2005, and employment in head offices was as high after the takeovers as it was before.
Over the entire period from 1999 to 2007, total employment in the head offices of foreign-controlled firms was, on average, about one-half of the total head-office employment of domestic firms. Despite this, foreign firms made approximately the same contribution as did domestic firms to the growth in head-office employment during this period.
Note to readers
This release is based on a new report that provides a concise synthesis of a wide array of data and research published by Statistics Canada on multinationals, focusing on both historical and current studies.
The first section of the report discusses the macroeconomic contribution of foreign multinationals operating in Canada, focusing on two indicators of multinational activity: foreign control and foreign direct investment.
The second section concentrates on the strategies and activities of foreign multinationals that are relevant to ongoing debates over whether the presence of foreign multinationals promotes or hampers Canada's industrial competitiveness.
The third section focuses on studies that examine the foreign activities of Canadian-owned multinationals, and how their domestic plants compare to foreign-controlled plants operating in Canada.
|
Canadian international merchandise trade - September 2007
Canada's trade balance with the world contracted to its lowest level since December 1998, as exports declined and imports increased.

Exports decreased 2.3% to $37.7 billion in September, the lowest level since October 2006. Only three sectorsautomotive products, energy products, and other consumer goodsrecorded gains.
Imports rose 2.2% to $35.1 billion, recapturing some of the loss registered in August. Energy products were by far the prime force behind the rise, followed by industrial goods and materials, automotive products, and other consumer goods.
With imports rising and exports falling, the nation's trade balance with the world narrowed to $2.6 billion, falling to its lowest level since December 1998. The trade surplus with the United States shrank to $6.2 billion.
Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States expanded to $3.5 billion. All principal trading areas contributed to the increase, with the exception of Japan, as Canada's trade deficit with Japan decreased.
Between January and September 2007, based on the Bank of Canada's monthly noon spot rate average, the Canadian dollar appreciated 13% against its American counterpart, reaching parity at the end of September.
Exports decrease despite growth in automotive products, energy products, and other consumer goods
Sharp declines in exports of machinery and equipment, and industrial goods and materials, the two most important sectors in terms of value, overshadowed gains in automotive products, energy products, and other consumer goods.
Exports of machinery and equipment tumbled 7.2% to $7.6 billion, their lowest level since May 2006, completely reversing the gains achieved in August. Aircraft and other transportation equipment were solely responsible for the declines, plummeting 31.5% to $1.4 billion, reaching their lowest level since January 2000.
Industrial goods and materials contracted 3.6% to $8.4 billion. Metal ores, in particular nickel, plunged for the second month in a row, following record levels in July. Prices for base metals were dampened by weakness in the American housing market.
Forestry products fell 7.4% to $2.2 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly drop. Declines were widespread, led by lumber and sawmill products, which shrank 9.2% as prices continued to fall.
Exports of agricultural and fishing products declined 3.6% to $2.9 billion, as wheat plunged 27.4%. These declines were offset by soaring exports of barley to various destinations.
Automotive products climbed 2.3% to $6.3 billion, slightly above levels recorded a year ago. This increase was largely attributable to passenger autos, which surged 6.8%, and trucks and other motor vehicles, which increased 1.0%. Motor vehicle parts fell for the second consecutive month, dipping below $2 billion for the first time since February 2001.
Gains in crude petroleum and other energy products, primarily petroleum and coal, offset declines in natural gas, boosting exports of energy products 1.2% to $7.6 billion. The jump in exports of crude petroleum stemmed from a rise in volume as prices declined slightly. The increase in petroleum and coal products reflected an increase in price and volume.
Following August's decrease, exports of other consumer goods advanced 3.0% to $1.6 billion, reflecting increased exports of pharmaceutical products now manufactured in Canada.
Energy products fuel imports
Imports recovered somewhat in September from the declines observed in August, as the Canadian dollar continued to gain ground. Higher imports of energy products, industrial goods and materials, automotive products, and other consumer goods more than compensated for the declines registered by the three remaining sectors.
Energy products led the expansion in imports in September, accounting for more than half of the increase. Imports in this sector soared 13.5% to reach $3.4 billion, their highest level in 2007, and just shy of the record high achieved in August 2006. Petroleum and coal products, crude petroleum, and to a lesser extent coal and other related products, drove the increase. The increase of crude petroleum, and petroleum and coal products was due almost entirely to volume. Strong gasoline demand, refinery shutdowns for maintenance and upgrades, and the preparation for the upcoming winter heating season were among the factors contributing to the growth.
Imports of industrial goods and materials rose 2.6% to $7.2 billion, their highest level since February. Metals and metal ores were the sole source of the growth in the sector, rising 10.8% to $2.5 billion on the strength of precious metals and alloys.
Following August's decline, automotive products rose 1.6% to $6.7 billion, reaching levels slightly higher than those in September 2006. Motor vehicle parts increased 6.5%, while trucks and other motor vehicles grew 3.8%. Passenger autos declined for the second month in a row, falling 6.0% to $2.1 billion.
Machinery and equipment fell 1.9% to $9.6 billion. Aircraft and other transportation equipment were responsible for almost the entire decline, falling 13.9% to $1.3 billion. Despite the second consecutive monthly decrease since peaking in July, aircraft and other transportation equipment remained strong in comparison to previous years.
Agricultural and fishing products dipped 0.5% to $2.1 billion, following a record high in August. Declines in fish and marine animals, meat, and tobacco imports offset record imports of beverages, cocoa and coffee, and animal feed. Imports of corn and other ingredients for animal feed have been on the rise in recent months.
Snapshot of emerging markets: Russia
Over the past several years, Russia has been growing in importance as a trading partner. In 2006, Canada's total merchandise trade with Russia amounted to $2.3 billion, more than twice the value of a decade earlier.
During the first nine months of 2007, exports to Russia were valued at $875.9 million, a 37.6% increase over the same period in 2006. Imports from Russia amounted to $1.1 billion, virtually unchanged from the same period in 2006.
The products in highest demand from Russia were crude petroleum, precious metals, and fertilizers. Imports of these three commodities were valued at $761 million in the first three quarters of 2007, with crude petroleum accounting for 87.4% of that value.
In contrast, manufactured goods dominated Canadian exports to Russia. In the first nine months of 2007, Canada's top exports to Russia were industrial and agricultural machinery, followed by fresh, chilled and frozen meat. Together, these commodities were valued at $241.5 million, with machinery accounting for two thirds of that value.
| Merchandise trade |
| |
August 2007r |
September 2007 |
August to September 2007 |
September 2006 to September 2007 |
January to September 2006 |
January to September 2007 |
January–September 2006 to January–September 2007 |
| |
Seasonally adjusted, $ current |
| |
$ millions |
% change |
$ millions |
% change |
| Principal trading partners |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Exports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| United States |
29,391 |
28,944 |
-1.5 |
-0.8 |
271,746 |
271,195 |
-0.2 |
| Japan |
800 |
747 |
-6.6 |
-15.4 |
7,770 |
7,723 |
-0.6 |
| European Union1 |
3,234 |
2,906 |
-10.1 |
-0.5 |
23,960 |
30,200 |
26.0 |
| Other OECD countries2 |
1,708 |
1,660 |
-2.8 |
-3.9 |
12,351 |
15,688 |
27.0 |
| All other countries |
3,455 |
3,451 |
-0.1 |
13.8 |
24,367 |
29,793 |
22.3 |
| Total |
38,588 |
37,710 |
-2.3 |
-0.1 |
340,191 |
354,599 |
4.2 |
| Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| United States |
22,453 |
22,764 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
197,218 |
203,873 |
3.4 |
| Japan |
1,000 |
907 |
-9.3 |
-11.3 |
9,026 |
8,853 |
-1.9 |
| European Union1 |
3,472 |
3,652 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
31,471 |
32,203 |
2.3 |
| Other OECD countries2 |
2,036 |
2,199 |
8.0 |
23.9 |
17,481 |
18,470 |
5.7 |
| All other countries |
5,335 |
5,544 |
3.9 |
6.9 |
46,026 |
49,477 |
7.5 |
| Total |
34,296 |
35,065 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
301,219 |
312,880 |
3.9 |
| Balance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| United States |
6,938 |
6,180 |
... |
... |
74,528 |
67,322 |
... |
| Japan |
-200 |
-160 |
... |
... |
-1,256 |
-1,130 |
... |
| European Union1 |
-238 |
-746 |
... |
... |
-7,511 |
-2,003 |
... |
| Other OECD countries2 |
-328 |
-539 |
... |
... |
-5,130 |
-2,782 |
... |
| All other countries |
-1,880 |
-2,093 |
... |
... |
-21,659 |
-19,684 |
... |
| Total |
4,292 |
2,645 |
... |
... |
38,972 |
41,719 |
... |
| Principal commodity groupings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Exports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Agricultural and fishing products |
2,995 |
2,887 |
-3.6 |
3.3 |
23,176 |
26,015 |
12.2 |
| Energy products |
7,476 |
7,565 |
1.2 |
6.8 |
66,391 |
68,946 |
3.8 |
| Forestry products |
2,412 |
2,233 |
-7.4 |
-15.7 |
25,306 |
22,431 |
-11.4 |
| Industrial goods and materials |
8,704 |
8,390 |
-3.6 |
1.1 |
68,613 |
79,910 |
16.5 |
| Machinery and equipment |
8,211 |
7,618 |
-7.2 |
-4.7 |
70,547 |
72,726 |
3.1 |
| Automotive products |
6,160 |
6,304 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
61,657 |
59,270 |
-3.9 |
| Other consumer goods |
1,509 |
1,555 |
3.0 |
6.4 |
13,053 |
14,414 |
10.4 |
| Special transactions trade3 |
653 |
643 |
-1.5 |
-12.3 |
6,499 |
6,336 |
-2.5 |
| Other balance of payments adjustments |
468 |
514 |
9.8 |
0.2 |
4,947 |
4,553 |
-8.0 |
| Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Agricultural and fishing products |
2,158 |
2,148 |
-0.5 |
6.2 |
17,391 |
19,072 |
9.7 |
| Energy products |
2,973 |
3,374 |
13.5 |
14.6 |
26,645 |
27,286 |
2.4 |
| Forestry products |
247 |
245 |
-0.8 |
-4.7 |
2,293 |
2,250 |
-1.9 |
| Industrial goods and materials |
6,979 |
7,158 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
62,525 |
64,330 |
2.9 |
| Machinery and equipment |
9,803 |
9,618 |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
84,992 |
87,897 |
3.4 |
| Automotive products |
6,562 |
6,664 |
1.6 |
4.6 |
59,489 |
60,566 |
1.8 |
| Other consumer goods |
4,502 |
4,591 |
2.0 |
5.4 |
38,479 |
41,261 |
7.2 |
| Special transactions trade3 |
407 |
578 |
42.0 |
35.7 |
3,381 |
4,124 |
22.0 |
| Other balance of payments adjustments |
666 |
689 |
3.5 |
1.3 |
6,026 |
6,094 |
1.1 |
| r | revised |
| ... | not applicable |
| 1. | Includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. |
| 2. | Other countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) include Australia, Canada, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland and Turkey. |
| 3. | These are mainly low-valued transactions, value of repairs to equipment, and goods returned to the country of origin. |
|
Note To Readers
Merchandise trade is one component of the current account of Canada's balance of payments, which also includes trade in services.
International merchandise trade data by country are available on both a balance of payments and a customs basis for the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. Trade data for all other individual countries are available on a customs basis only. Balance of payments data are derived from customs data by making adjustments for items such as valuation, coverage, timing and residency. These adjustments are made to conform to the concepts and definitions of the Canadian System of National Accounts.
At the end of each quarter, The Daily includes a section describing trends and topics of interest relating to Canadian international merchandise trade. This section typically discusses data that is presented on a customs basis and not seasonally adjusted.
Revisions
In general, merchandise trade data are revised on an ongoing basis for each month of the current year. Each quarter, customs basis data are revised for the previous data year.
Factors influencing revisions include late receipt of import and export documentation, incorrect information on customs forms, replacement of estimates with actual figures, changes in the classification of merchandise based on more current information, and changes to seasonal adjustment factors.
Revised data are available in the appropriate CANSIM tables.
|
Ontario economic leaders say infrastructure deficit can't wait: survey
NIAGARA-ON-THE-LAKE - Collective action and stewardship of the province's resources, are vital if we're to address some of the key issues facing the Ontario economy and secure a prosperous future. That, according to leaders in business, labour, academia and government.
In a survey of 358 economic leaders from across the province, the Ontario
Economic Summit (OES), an initiative of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce,
gauged the urgency of four key components of stewardship of the economy:
infrastructure, competitiveness of Ontario communities, international
stewardship in the areas of global health and environmental sustainability and
foreign acquisitions of Canadian businesses.
Infrastructure
91% of those surveyed indicated that infrastructure was the most critical
issue to be addressed today with roads and transportation considered the most
important element (41%), followed by the US/Canada border (19%). Ontario's
economic leaders overwhelmingly (80%) believe infrastructure issues will
become increasingly important for Ontario's economy in the future and more
than half (57%) consider it the responsibility of the public sector.
Community Competitiveness
Infrastructure also rated highly in terms of factors impacting community
competitiveness with such things as availability of serviced land, local
research and local roads and transportation topping the list. Two key barriers
to community competitiveness were identified by respondents: lack of
coordination and/or communication between stakeholders (36%) and lack of
leadership (30%). 90% of respondents consider community competitiveness to be
a joint responsibility between the public and private sector.
Foreign Acquisitions of Canadian Companies
The issue of foreign acquisitions of Canadian companies concerns more
than half of all respondents (58%) with no consensus on the solution. 35%
believe government should modify the tax regime to allow Canadian owned
companies to be more competitive, while 24% believe Canadian companies must
develop better long term growth strategies and 19% suggest an increased
investment in research & development.
Ontario's International Stewardship Role
On the international front, environmental sustainability was rated as the
most important issue by almost half (49%) of Ontario economic leaders,
followed by global health at 15%. Ontario's economic leaders expect more
organizations to adopt environmentally sustainable practices (84%).
Full survey results will be presented at the Ontario Economic Summit
which takes place in Niagara-on-the-Lake from November 13 - 15. The Summit is
the foremost forum for influential leaders in the province to share knowledge
and insights, and collaboratively seize new opportunities to move the
provincial economy forward.
Additional information may be found at www.occ-oes.com including the
current agenda and a list of Summit partners and sponsors.
The Ontario Economic Summit is an initiative of the Ontario Chamber of
Commerce.
|
NORDIC COUNTRIES TOP THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’S GENDER GAP INDEX
World makes progress on economic, political and education gaps; loses ground on health gaps.
Geneva, Switzerland Four Nordic countries, Sweden (1), Norway (2), Finland (3) and Iceland (4) once again top the latest Gender Gap Index released today by the World Economic Forum. All countries in the top 20 made progress relative to their scores last year some more so than others. Latvia (13) and Lithuania (14) made the biggest advances among the top 20, gaining six and seven places respectively, driven by smaller gender gaps in labour force participation and wages.
The performance of the United States (31) was mixed over the last year its scores on political empowerment improved but this was offset by a bigger gap on economic participation causing the United States to lose 6 places relative to its rank in 2006. Switzerland (40) loses 12 places relative to its position in 2006. The change was the result of a correction made by the UNDP in its calculation of estimated earned income for women and men the ratio between women’s and men’s incomes is now larger than previously reported (0.61 in 2007 vs 0.9 in 2006). Switzerland's scores on all other variables remain largely static. France (51) remains one of the few countries holding the number one ranking on both education and health and has made considerable progress relative to its 70th position in the 2006 ranking. This significant increase is due to an improvement in the ratio between women’s and men’s labour force participation rates as well as the availability of new data on women in skilled employment. Calculations based on the new data show that the proportion of women among “professional and technical workers” as well as the proportion of women among “legislators, senior officials and managers” increased. In the bottom half of the rankings, countries such as Tunisia (102), Turkey (121) and Morocco (122) not only fall further in the relative rankings but also show a drop in scores relative to their own performance last year. On the other hand, Korea (97), the United Arab Emirates (105) and Saudi Arabia (124) show encouraging improvements in their 2007 scores as compared to their 2006 scores.
Download the full Global Gender Gap Report 2007 Index in PDF format.
For the highlights of The Gender Gap Report, click here.
*Please note that scores are produced on a zero-to-one scale and can be roughl interpreted as the percentage of the gender gap that has been closed
Global Gender Gap Index scores can be interpreted as the percentage of the gap between women and men that has been closed. Taking averages across the subindexes for 115 countries covered in both 2006 and 2007 reveals that, globally, progress has been made on narrowing the educational attainment gap from 91.55% to 91.60%, the political empowerment gap from 14.07% to 14.15% and the economic participation gap from 55.78% to 57.30%. On health, however, the gap increases, dropping from 96.25% to 95.81%.
“The Global Gender Gap Report quantifies the challenge: it shows that the highest ranking country has closed a little over 80% of its gender gap, while the lowest ranking country has closed only a little over 45% of its gender gap. By providing a comprehensible framework for assessing and comparing global gender gaps and by revealing those countries that, regardless of the overall level of resources available, are role models in dividing these resources equitably between women and men, we are expectant that this Report serves as a catalyst for greater awareness as well as greater exchange between policy-makers,” said Saadia Zahidi, Head of the World Economic Forum’s Women Leaders Programme. (Click on the picture to watch a two-minute video with Saadia Zahidi.)
The Global Gender Gap Report 2007 is based on the innovative new methodology introduced last year and includes detailed profiles that provide insight into the economic, legal and social aspects of the gender gap in each country. The Report measures the size of the gender gap in four critical areas of inequality between men and women:
Economic participation and opportunity outcomes on salaries, participation levels and access to high-skilled employment
Educational attainment outcomes on access to basic and higher level education
Political empowerment outcomes on representation in decision-making structures
Health and survival outcomes on life expectancy and sex ratio
“The World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report is a framework for capturing the magnitude of gender-based disparities across the world and tracking how they evolve over time. As policy-makers and business leaders seek to address talent shortages, there is increasing urgency to close gender gaps and leverage the talents of both women and men. At the World Economic Forum, we put strong emphasis on addressing this challenge a challenge that transcends across the majority of the world’s cultures, industries and income groups through a multistakeholder approach,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
The Report is the result of collaboration between Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Centre for International Development at Harvard University; Laura Tyson, Professor of Business Administration and Economics at the University of California, Berkeley; and Saadia Zahidi. “The Index assesses countries on how well they are dividing their resources and opportunities among their male and female populations, regardless of the overall levels of these resources and opportunities. Thus the index does not penalize those countries that have low levels of education overall, but rather those where the distribution of education is uneven between women and men,” said Ricardo Hausmann. (Click on the picture to watch a three-minute video with Ricardo Hausmann.)
The Report also provides some evidence on the link between the gender gap and the economic performance of countries. “Our work shows a strong correlation between competitiveness and the gender gap scores. While this does not imply causality, the possible theoretical underpinnings of this link are quite simple: countries that do not fully capitalize effectively on one-half of their human resources run the risk of undermining their competitive potential. We hope to highlight the economic incentive behind empowering women in addition to promoting equality as a basic human right,” added Laura Tyson.
The World Economic Forum continues to expand geographic coverage in the Report. Featuring a total of 128 countries, this year’s Report provides an insight into the gaps between women and men in over 90% of the world’s population. Coverage has been expanded to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belize, Cuba, Maldives, Mozambique, Oman, Qatar, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan and Vietnam. The Report covers all current and candidate European Union countries, 23 from Latin America and the Caribbean, 23 from sub-Saharan Africa, over 20 from Asia and 15 from the Middle East and North Africa. Thirteen out of the 14 variables used to create the Index are from publicly available “hard data” indicators from international organizations, such as the International Labour Organization, the United Nations Development Programme and the World Health Organization.
|
Provincial and territorial economic accounts 2003 to 2006
Retail and wholesale trade continued to support the economies of Ontario and Quebec as income levels remained strong.
Alberta led the country in growth again in 2006, continuing to build on its booming oil industry, the impact of which rippled across its economy.
Economic growth was widespread as several Western Provinces, as well as two of the four Atlantic Provinces registered growth rates above the national average.
Nationally, gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.8% in 2006, a slightly slower pace than the 3.1% gain in 2005. Services production generally outpaced goods production.
Growth increased 6.6% in Alberta, the fastest pace of all provinces and territories. Continued investment in Alberta's oil-patch rippled through all sectors in the province.
Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nunavut were helped by increased production in their mining industries. Good crop conditions and busy construction sites pushed economic growth above the national average in both Prince Edward Island and Manitoba.
Retail and wholesale trade gave a lift to British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario. This effect was dampened, however, in the Central Canadian Provinces by weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia both experienced downturns in their mining, and oil and gas extraction industries, keeping growth in these provinces below the national pace. Saskatchewan was further affected by a smaller crop in 2006 and was the only province to register a decline in GDP.
Construction played an important role in the North, as growth in Yukon was slowed by a decline in this activity, while growth in the Northwest Territories was bolstered.
Between 2003 and 2006, most of the growth was in Western Canada, with Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia leading the way. The provinces and territories with the strongest growth over this period generally benefited from upturns in primary industries, such as agriculture, mining, and oil and gas extraction.
Growth rates for real GDP in the provinces and territories have been revised from 2003 to 2006. Overall, the picture of economic growth remained the same. Growth rates were revised up in 2006 for five jurisdictions: Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Ontario, and the Northwest Territories. Growth rates in Nova Scotia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, and Nunavut were revised down. The growth rates in Quebec and in Yukon remained the same.
Commodity prices continue to energize economies in Western Canada
Alberta led the country in economic growth for the third consecutive year. High oil prices accelerated investment in the oil patch. The economic impact of the development of the oil sands in northern Alberta rippled across the province. An influx of workers boosted personal income and, in turn, increased demand for new homes and other goods and services. Construction continued at a feverish pace.
British Columbia also benefited from a boom in construction, although overall growth in economic activity slowed to 3.3%. Strong population growth and projects related to the upcoming Olympic Games have spurred on investment in construction. In 2006, service industries such as retail and wholesale trade, along with financial services, were important contributors to the economy.
Busy construction sites pushed economic growth to 3.2% in Manitoba, above the national average for the first time since 1998. An increase in hydro-electricity output in 2005 and a good crop in 2006, combined with growing investment in residential and non-residential construction, moved Manitoba's economy forward.
After three years of strong growth, the Saskatchewan economy slipped 0.4% in 2006. A smaller crop along with a downturn in several key mining industries contributed to the decline. However, with high commodity prices, income levels remained relatively strong in 2006.
Domestic demand supports Central Canada
Retail and wholesale trade continued to support the economies of Ontario and Quebec as income levels remained strong. Business investment, particularly in Ontario, also continued to boost the economy.
Despite this, the growth rates for both Ontario and Quebec have remained below the national average over the last four years. The economy advanced 2.1% in Ontario in 2006 and 1.7% in Quebec.
The Quebec and Ontario economies were hurt by a rising Canadian dollar and a slowdown in US demand. Manufacturing, lethargic throughout the past four years, experienced a sharp drop in 2006 as motor vehicle makers in Ontario were hard hit by a reduction in export demand.
Stronger economic activity returns to Eastern Canada
After two years of below-average growth, two of the four Eastern Provinces exceeded the national average in 2006.
Economic activity jumped 3.3% in Newfoundland and Labrador after remaining flat in 2005. The first full year of production at the Voisey's Bay nickel mine and the White Rose oil field contributed to this advance.
New Brunswick also registered an upturn in its economic fortunes in 2006 (+3.0%). After two years of slow growth, gains in manufacturing, forestry and construction pushed the province forward. Investment in non-residential construction was particularly strong.
A 2.6% gain in Prince Edward Island was fuelled by a good potato crop and renewed strength in the province's construction industry. Exports also advanced, contributing to a rise in corporate profits.
Nova Scotia was one of two Eastern Provinces to lag the national average in 2006 (+0.9%). A big upswing in construction investment was offset by a decrease in most of the primary goods-producing industries, including natural gas production. Exports fell in 2006 as a result of this weakened production.
Construction an important part of the territorial economies
Large construction projects have played an important role in the territorial economies over the past few years.
In 2006, Nunavut benefited from the economic activity at the Jericho diamond mine. The territory's economy advanced 3.4% in 2006 on the heels of a decline (-0.2%) in 2005.
In Yukon, a downturn in construction activity in 2006, following two years of big increases, led to slower growth. Yukon's economy advanced 2.9% in 2006, compared with 3.9% in 2005.
The Northwest Territories have experienced large variations in growth over the past few years. Substantial increases in construction investment from 2004 to 2006 propelled the economy forward. The economy grew 2.9% in 2006, rebounding from a sharp downturn (-2.5%) in 2005.
Note to readers
This release of provincial and territorial economic accounts is an update of estimates released in The Daily on April 25, 2007.
This latest release is based on updated data sources and methodologies, and includes the latest input-output tables' benchmarks (revised 2003 and preliminary 2004 data, also released today), revisions to the National Income and Expenditure Accounts released on May 31, 2007, and revisions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) by industry released on October 31, 2007.
Other elements incorporated in the update are the re-referencing of the volume estimates to 2002, and the conversion to the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) from NAICS 1997 for GDP-by-industry statistics.
Percentage changes for expenditure- and industry-based statistics (such as consumer expenditures, investment, exports, imports, production and output) were calculated using volume measures, that is, adjusted for price variations.
Percentage changes for income-based statistics (such as labour income, corporate profits and farm income) were calculated using nominal values, that is, not adjusted for price variations.
|
The Fraser Institute: Increased Foreign Investment Provides Canadian Consumers With Lower Prices and Higher Wages
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA - Increased foreign investment and foreign business activity in Canada leads to lower prices for consumer goods, greater choice, better quality goods and services, and higher wages, according to a new paper by economists with independent research organization The Fraser Institute.
"Restrictions on foreign investment and business activity are designed to protect certain domestic industries and do nothing to help Canadian consumers or the overall economy," said Jason Clemens, The Fraser Institute's Resident Scholar in Fiscal Studies.
"Canada should be encouraging foreign investment and foreign business activity, rather than considering additional restrictions."
The Benefits of Foreign Business Activity in Canada reviews existing research on foreign business activity in order to assess the economic impact of restrictions on activities such as foreign direct investment, foreign ownership, and foreign competition.
"With the sale of large Canadian companies such as Inco, Dofasco, the Hudson's Bay Company, Sleeman's Brewing, and Alcan to foreign investors, a great hue and cry has arisen for stricter limits on foreign investment," Clemens said.
"But Canada has some of the most restrictive rules among industrialized countries on foreign business activity. More rules will further penalize Canadian consumers and harm our economy."
The paper found that Canada has a plethora of regulations restricting foreign business activity. The most significant is the Investment Canada Act, administered by Industry Canada. Under this act, foreign investments are reviewed before they are approved in order to ensure that such investment will be of net benefit to Canada. Additionally, there are a number of industry-specific regulations that limit foreign ownership or investment in particular business segments such as telecommunications, airlines, banking, pipelines, mining, oil and gas, radio and TV broadcasting, and publishing.
The research shows that industry-specific regulations shelter domestic firms from competition, ultimately resulting in higher prices for consumers, reduced choice, and slower access to technology on the part of industry.
Among countries within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Canada ranks 25th out of 29 nations in terms of openness to foreign business, joining other countries with heavy restrictions such as Iceland and Mexico. The countries most open to foreign business activity tend to be European, led by Belgium.
In fact, Clemens noted that several OECD reports have been quite critical of Canada's restrictive policies on foreign business activity. A 2006 survey singled out Canada as one of the most restrictive countries for foreign business activity in many sectors, and suggested it needed to lift restrictions of foreign activity in heavily regulated sectors such as airlines, telecommunications, and broadcasting if it wanted to increase competition and efficiency.
The study breaks down foreign business activity into three areas: foreign direct investment (the investment in assets of domestic companies), foreign ownership (a foreign firm gains a controlling interest in a domestic company), and foreign competition (foreign companies are allowed to compete directly with domestic companies in the Canadian market).
In all instances, the research shows that the foreign business activity improves the performance of domestic companies, usually by increasing productivity by creating competition or facilitating the transfer and use of new technology. Consumers benefit from additional choice and lower prices, while workers benefit through higher wages.
"The research is clear; foreign business activity increases investment, competition, innovation, and access to new technology. This leads to lower prices for consumers, additional choice and higher wages for workers," Clemens said.
"There's no sound, logical reason why Canadians should fear foreign investment and competition in Canada."
In light of the evidence showing the benefits of foreign business activity, Clemens called on the federal government to create a framework that encourages, rather than restricts foreign business activity, in order to increase Canada's competitiveness relative to other industrialized countries.
"We need to recognize that the economic benefits of foreign business activity will play a critical role in shaping future investment and competition policy in this country."
The Fraser Institute is an independent research and educational organization with offices in Calgary, Montreal, Tampa, Toronto, and Vancouver. Its mission is to measure, study, and communicate the impact of competitive markets and government intervention on the welfare of individuals. To protect the Institute's independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research.
|
Money falls from the family tree into the hands of retiring boomers, RBC poll finds
Survey examines whether or not parents will leave money to their kids
TORONTO - More than half of Canadians in their fifties (57 per cent) have received or are expecting to receive money from their parents and in-laws, according to the results of an RBC poll. As a result of the largest and most anticipated transfer of wealth in history, many boomers say they will do things differently than their parents when it comes to bequeathing their wealth.
"Boomers are expected to inherit up to $1 trillion from their parents,"
said Mike Reed, head, retirement and affluent client strategy, RBC. "Given the
enormous amount of wealth that will change hands within the next decade, this
transfer needs to be managed effectively through proper planning, particularly
as people head into retirement."
Approximately three in five respondents in their fifties (61 per cent)
expect to give money, during their lifetime, to their own adult children. Of
those, more than two in three (69 per cent) say they will do so because they
want to see their children enjoy their lives.
While a majority of those in their fifties expect to give money to their
adult children, nearly one in ten (7 per cent) respondents say that they would
not, believing that their children need to earn their own way or wait until
their parent dies. Other respondents say that they will need the money
themselves or that their children do not handle money very well.
Although Canadians in their fifties have considered who will benefit from
their accumulated wealth, three-in-ten (29 per cent) feel that they have not
given enough consideration to their legacy. When contemplating their legacy,
seven in ten respondents (70 per cent) feel strongly that they want to be
remembered as a person who enjoyed time with their family. This family focus
is also reflected in the finding that four in five of those in their fifties
(81 per cent) believe that their children are their legacy.
Despite their family orientation, boomers are not confident that their
efforts to support them will be sufficient, only one-in-five (20 per cent)
respondents in their fifties believe they have done enough to make sure that
their family will be okay.
"One message that came through clearly in our research is that, for most
people, family comes first - and this finding is echoed in our experience with
clients who participate in our retirement life planning program Your Future by
Design," commented Reed.
The RBC Retiring Boomers Poll was conducted by Ipsos Reid from August 3
to 8, 2007. The online survey was based on responses from 1,225 adult
Canadians between the ages of 50 and 59 with household assets of $100,000 or
more. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to
within +/-2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have
been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error
will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey
population.
|
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat: PwC survey
Toronto Leading real estate experts are predicting the US commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more upbeat.
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry’s leading real estate experts, including investors, developers, property company representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US. Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe and Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific are also published each year addressing the outlook for these real estate markets.
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm’s Canadian Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment environment than the US. “In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to be avoiding ‘transaction mania’, but real estate values have reached record highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.”
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be very good and a further 22.4% say they’re excellent.
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian respondents are predicted to be within real estate services, followed by commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and single-family housing looks overpriced.
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good, and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary western citiesVancouver, Calgary, and Edmontonare veering toward housing shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
Canadian Markets to Watch
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out westCalgary and Edmontonscore the highest ratings for investment prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain whether Alberta’s recent announcements on oil and gas royalties will have any effect on this. TorontoCanada’s premier global pathway cityand Vancouver also have high ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
Calgary/Edmonton
Calgary is the Canada’s resource capital and North America’s number-one boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a buy recommendation for hotel property, 52.8% for industrial/distribution, 48.1% for retail and apartment residential and 44.6% for office property. Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary for-sale homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays strong, this market will continue to do well.
Vancouver
Vancouver’s diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy recommendation for hotel property. A further 43.5% give a buy to retail, 41.3% for industrial/distribution and 36.7% for office property followed by 34.1% for apartment residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
Toronto
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum. Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square feet of office space. Notably, office (49.1%), industrial (46.2%) and apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
Montreal
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a buy recommendation in all real estate sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors higher as a hold recommendation.
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest overseas. Potter concludes, “Domestic opportunities are too limited at current prices.”
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Canada competitiveness standing up in one index, down in another
World Economic Forum rankings indicate need for Canadian governments and
businesses to pull out of current competitiveness lethargy, says
Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity
TORONTO - In the "Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008" released today by the World Economic Forum, whose Canadian partner is the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity, results for Canada in the rankings over 2006's results were mixed. On the "Business Competitiveness Index," Canada moved up to 14th from 15th. On the "Global Competitiveness Index," Canada fell to 13th from 12th.
"These annual indices help Canadians determine trends in the
competitiveness of our economy versus our global competitors," said Roger
Martin, Chairman of the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity and Dean of
the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. "What they indicate
is that Canada is stuck in neutral when it comes to creating a competitive
economy that will thrive, not just survive, as globalization increases in
importance."
Business Competitiveness Index
The "Business Competitiveness Index," developed by Michael Porter,
Director of the Harvard Business School's Institute for Strategy and
Competitiveness, draws on economic data and surveys of over 11,000 business
leaders in 131 economies around the world to develop indicators that measure
the set of institutions, market structures, and economic policies supportive
of high national prosperity. The Index consists of two sub-indices: the
quality of the business environment - which includes a country's financial
markets, the impact of competitive pressure and support in the economy as well
as public administrative effectiveness - where Canada edged up to 14th from
15th - and the sophistication of companies' operations and strategies - where
Canada rose one spot to 17th. Taking Canada's performance on the two
sub-indices together, Canada's overall ranking on the Business Competitiveness
Index climbed to 14th from 15th.
Martin views the stagnant rankings as part of a longer term trend which
indicates that Canada is not fulfilling its economic potential. "In 1998,
Canada stood sixth in this ranking of our business competitiveness," said
Martin, "and in 2001 we stood 11th. Over the years we've drifted down in the
rankings as countries like Norway and Japan have stepped up their
competitiveness." Among the world's largest economies - countries with half of
Canada's population or greater - Martin noted that Canada has held its ranking
of 6th as Japan has leapt from 8th to 5th. France and Australia have slipped
out of the top 6 spots over the same period. Among these larger countries and
economies Canada has consistently ranked between 6th and 8th over the past
five years.
Martin also observed that Canada's national business environment is still
a cause for concern. "Canadian business and government leaders still have a
lot of work to do to strengthen Canada's competitive position in the world,"
said Martin. He noted that against the number one ranked US, Canada continued
to lag in important factors such as the intensity of local competition and
company spending on research and development.
"Our work at the Institute points to the need to strengthen our market
structures in Canada so that businesses have the pressure to strive for
creativity and growth rather than settle for comfortable strategies that
preserve the status quo," said Martin.
On the other sub-index, company operations and strategy, Canada's
rankings in company operations have traditionally been in a tight band between
14th and 18th in the world and in 2007 we stood 17th. To improve Canada's
ranking and overall competitiveness our business leaders need to become more
competitive through unique products and processes and compete more on adding
value to products and services in areas such as product design and added
services. And this will occur if we step up the pressure and support for
innovative strategies.
The top ranking countries in the global Business Competitiveness Index
were:
1. United States
2. Germany
3. Finland
4. Sweden
5. Denmark
Global Competitiveness Index
In the World Economic Forum's other global index, the Global
Competitiveness Index, Canada fell from 12th to 13th. This Index provides an
overview of factors that are critical to sustainable growth in productivity
and competitiveness. It consists of three sub-indices which measure the
quality of each country's "basic requirements", "efficiency enhancers", and
"innovation factors".
On the first sub-index which measures the basic requirements as provided
by institutions, infrastructure, the overall economy, and health and primary
education, Canada jumped to 11th from 14th. Strong results in the health and
primary education factors, a traditional strength for Canada in the rankings,
drove the increase on this sub-index.
The second sub-index, efficiency enhancers, measures the impact of higher
education and training, market efficiency, and technological readiness. Canada
improved from 6th to 5th. Canada fell in the rankings on financial market
sophistication but improved in its technological readiness - a function of the
penetration of personal computers and the Internet.
On the third sub-index, innovation factors which measures business
sophistication and innovation, Canada's ranking slipped one spot to 16th.
Countries showing the most significant improvement in the Global
Competitiveness Index were Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.
The United States tops the overall rankings. According to the World Economic
Forum, The United States confirms its position as the most competitive economy
in the world. The efficiency of the country's markets, the sophistication of
its business community, the impressive capacity for technological innovation
that exists within a first-rate system of universities and research centres,
all contribute to making the United States a highly competitive economy
Top ranking countries for the Global Competitiveness Index were:
1. United States
2. Switzerland
3. Denmark
4. Sweden
5. Germany
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In August, economic activity increased 0.2%, its average pace since the beginning of 2007.
Increases in retail trade and oil extraction propelled the growth, while a decline in utilities dampened it. Both the goods- and services-producing industries advanced. Gains were also registered in construction, forestry, mining excluding oil and gas, and wholesale trade. In addition, the accommodation and food services, and financial sectors moved ahead. Conversely, utilities retreated and manufacturing stood still.

Retail trade rises sharply
Retail trade jumped 1.3% in August, following two months of decline. A surge in sales by new car dealers propelled the growth. Notable increases were also recorded by furniture, home furnishings and electronics stores, general merchandise stores (including department stores), and food and beverage vendors. These gains were partially offset by declines in the sales of gasoline stations, pharmacies and personal care stores.
Energy sector unchanged
The energy sector was essentially unchanged in August after declining in July. Crude oil production grew partly as a result of improved production facilities becoming operational, and existing facilities being reactivated following routine maintenance in July. However, natural gas production fell, primarily due to weak prices. Furthermore, utilities slipped 0.8%. Oil and gas exploration moved ahead (+1.9%) for a third month in a row after experiencing strong decreases during the February to May period.
The output of the mining sector, excluding oil and gas, leaped 2.9% in August. Both the metal ore mines and non-metallic mineral mines posted strong gains. In particular, copper, nickel, lead and zinc mining production combined reached an all-time high.
Construction posts gain
The construction sector advanced 0.5% in August, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. The gains recorded in residential construction (+0.1%) and in engineering and repair work (+0.9%) overshadowed the slip in non-residential building construction (-0.2%). The construction of multi-unit structures, as well as renovation work, propelled residential construction. However, the construction of single-family homes retreated. The increase in industrial building construction was not enough to offset the decline in commercial and public building construction.
The home resale market fell sharply in August, due primarily to significant declines in sales in Ontario and Quebec. This resulted in a 5.6% drop for the real estate agents and brokers industry, marking a return to a more normal level of activity following record-high transactions in June and July.
Wholesale trade edges up
Wholesale trade rose 0.1% in August. Gains were posted in the trade of farm products, apparel, food products, and computers and other electronic equipment. These gains were neutralized by a retreat in the wholesaling of motor vehicles (including parts), lumber and millwork, and machinery and equipment.
Manufacturing unchanged
Manufacturing stood still in August. The increase in the production of durable goods was offset by the decline in non-durable goods. Of the 21 major manufacturing groups, 11 decreased, accounting for 51% of total manufacturing value added.
Significant gains were made in motor vehicle, clothing, and beverage and tobacco manufacturing. However, the production of chemicals, motor vehicle parts, and sawmills declined.
Industrial production (the output of mines, utilities and factories) increased 0.1% in August. The gain in mining was partially offset by a drop in utilities. In the United States, industrial production remained unchanged in August. The rise in utilities was neutralized by drops in manufacturing and mining.
Other industries
Activities in the finance and insurance sector grew 0.2%. The gains in this sector were partially offset by declines realized as a result of difficulties experienced in the asset-backed commercial paper markets. The accommodation and food services sector rose 0.9% in August. The number of international travellers to Canada advanced 2.4%, particularly that of overnight visitors from the United States (+4.3%).
Note to readers
The monthly gross domestic product (GDP) by industry data are chained volume estimates with 2002 as their reference year. This means that the estimates for each industry and aggregate are obtained from a chained volume index multiplied by the industry's value added in 2002. For the 1997 to 2004 period, the monthly estimates are benchmarked to annually chained Fisher volume indexes of GDP obtained from the constant-price input-output tables.
For the period starting with January 2005, the estimates are derived by chaining a fixed-weight Laspeyres volume index to the prior period. The fixed weights are the industry output and input prices of 2004. This makes the monthly GDP by industry estimates more comparable with the expenditure-based GDP data, chained quarterly.
Revisions and conversion to NAICS 2002 and to reference year 2002
With this release, the monthly GDP by industry program uses the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) instead of NAICS 1997. In addition, the reference year for the chained dollar data and the base year for the constant price data have been changed from 1997 to 2002.
As a consequence, CANSIM tables 379-0017 to 379-0022 have been terminated and replaced with the new monthly table 379-0027. This new table includes changes to the industry detail, largely caused by the conversion to NAICS 2002, which principally affect sector 51 - Information and cultural industries.
The change in the reference year and base year in the new table 379-0027 changes the levels but not the growth rates of the data for the period 1981 to 2001 inclusively, as it essentially consists of a rescaling of the already published data. However, the levels and growth rates for 2002 onward have undergone the regular monthly GDP annual revision process that incorporates the more recent input-output tables for 2003 and 2004, revisions to source data and to seasonal factors, as well as improvements to some of the methodologies used to derive monthly value added by industry.
To help users convert from the terminated CANSIM tables to the new table 379-0027, a concordance between the old and new vector numbers is available. This document also provides a detailed list of the changes to the industry detail.
For more information, contact the dissemination agent (toll-free 1-800-887-4623; 613-951-4623; IAD-Info-DCI@statcan.ca).
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THE UNITED STATES, SWITZERLAND, DENMARK AND SWEDEN TAKE THE LEAD IN THE RANKINGS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’S GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX
Germany, Singapore, Japan and the United Kingdom among the top ten
Geneva, Switzerland The United States tops the overall ranking in The Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008, released today by the World Economic Forum. Switzerland is in second position followed by Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Finland and Singapore, respectively. Chile is the highest ranked country in Latin America, followed by Mexico and Costa Rica. China and India continue to lead the way among large developing economies. Several countries in the Middle East and North Africa region are in the upper half of the rankings, led by Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In sub-Saharan Africa, only South Africa and Mauritius feature in the top half of the rankings, with several countries from the region positioned at the very bottom. Click here to read the highlights of the report.
“The United States confirms its position as the most competitive economy in the world. The efficiency of the country’s markets, the sophistication of its business community, the impressive capacity for technological innovation that exists within a first-rate system of universities and research centres, all contribute to making the United States a highly competitive economy. However, some weaknesses, particularly related to macroeconomic imbalances, continue to present a risk to the country’s overall competitiveness potential, and to the global economy as a whole. This danger has most recently been demonstrated by the fallout and contagion caused by the country’s sub-prime mortgage crisis and the ensuing global credit crunch,” said Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Professor of Economics at Columbia University and Co-Editor of the Report.
The rankings are calculated from both publicly available data and the Executive Opinion Survey, a comprehensive annual survey conducted by the World Economic Forum together with its network of Partner Institutes (leading research institutes and business organizations) in the countries covered by the Report. This year, over 11,000 business leaders were polled in a record 131 countries. The survey is designed to capture a broad range of factors affecting an economy’s business climate. The Report also includes comprehensive listings of the main strengths and weaknesses of countries, making it possible to identify key priorities for policy reform.
“Economic policy, especially at the microeconomic level, needs to set priorities that reflect the most important constraints to competitiveness in each country. The GCR enables countries to move beyond abstract theoretical policy debates and identify the specific tasks ahead of them,” explained Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business School Professor, and Co-Director of the Report.
“In an uncertain global financial environment it is more important than ever for countries to put into place the fundamentals underpinning economic growth and development. The World Economic Forum has for many years played a facilitating role in this process by providing detailed assessments of the productive potential of nations worldwide. The Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008 offers policy-makers and business leaders an important tool in the formulation of improved economic policies and institutional reforms," noted Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
Download the full Global Competitiveness Rankings
The Global Competitiveness Report’s overall competitiveness ranking is the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), developed for the World Economic Forum by Columbia University Professor Xavier Sala-i-Martin and originally introduced in 2004. This year’s GCI has been refined based on testing and expert feedback. The GCI is based on 12 pillars of competitiveness, providing a comprehensive picture of the competitiveness landscape in countries around the world at all stages of development. The pillars include: Institutions, Infrastructure, Macroeconomic Stability, Health and Primary Education, Higher Education and Training, Goods Market Efficiency, Labor Market Efficiency, Financial Market Sophistication, Technological Readiness, Market Size, Business Sophistication and Innovation.
A second part of the Report provides a more detailed examination of the microeconomic aspects of competitiveness, presented in the Business Competitiveness Index (BCI) led by Professor Porter. Countries that do well on the GCI also tend to do well on the BCI but there are some important differences. “Many countries have achieved progress by opening up to the world economy, stabilizing macroeconomic policies and removing internal barriers to competition. Our findings reveal the need to build underlying microeconomic competitiveness to translate these gains into sustained prosperity. If improvements in the business environment and company sophistication fail to materialize and they often require significant shifts in company and country nations expose themselves to declining competitiveness and are vulnerable to economic and social risks,” said Professor Porter. The BCI finds many European countries, especially Switzerland, Norway and Spain, to have wages much above the level supported by their competitiveness. The BCI rankings and subindexes on company operations and strategy, and business environment quality are found in Chapter 1.2 of the Report entitled “The Microeconomic Foundations of Prosperity: Findings from the Business Competitiveness Index”, which can be accessed online at www.weforum.org/gcr.
The World Economic Forum continues to expand geographic coverage in the Report. Featuring a total of 131 countries, this year’s Report is the most comprehensive of its type. Coverage has been expanded to Puerto Rico, Libya, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Syria and Uzbekistan. In addition, Serbia and Montenegro, previously analysed as a single country, are now included separately.
The Report contains a detailed country/economy profile for each of the 131 economies featured in the study, providing a comprehensive summary of the overall position in the rankings as well as the most prominent competitive advantages and competitive disadvantages of each country/economy based on the analysis used in computing the rankings. Also included is an extensive section of data tables with global rankings covering over 110 indicators. (Click on the picture to watch a 6-minute video with the Forum’s senior economist Jennifer Blanke)
This year’s Report also includes a number of discussions of selected countries including Germany, Malaysia, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates, providing an in-depth analysis of the issues affecting national competitiveness.
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Canadians Willing to Fund More to National Parks, Researcher Finds
Canadians are willing to pay more out of their own pockets to preserve national parks, a new study by a University of Guelph researcher has revealed.
In a first-ever survey examining the economic value placed on Canada's national parks by the general population, Will Wistowsky found that 61 per cent of Canadian households were willing to contribute additional funds to help maintain and complete Canada's national park system.
When people were asked how much more they'd be willing to pay, the average amount was $53 per household, with 47 per cent saying they'd be willing to contribute that amount annually.
Multiply that amount by the Canadian population and it adds up to $374 million in one-time funding plus an annual benefit of $176 million.
"This shows how much all Canadians both park visitors and non-visitors value their national parks," said Wistowsky, a doctoral student in the School of Environmental Design and Rural Development.
While his research is not intended to put a price tag on national parks, dollar figures allow officials to talk about the benefits of national parks in comparable and concrete terms, he said.
Previous studies have looked at the value of national parks based on gate receipts, said Wistowsky. But that puts pressure on the parks to focus on boosting revenues by increasing the number of users, which will come at the expense of environmental damage.
"This shows how much Canadians value their national parks regardless of whether they visit them."
Despite Canada having one of the world's oldest national parks system there is little information on their actual economic value to Canadian society, said Wistowsky.
His findings are based on questions added to Parks Canada's 2005 national public opinion poll. He was able to survey more than 1,300 respondents.
When asked why they would contribute more, a majority of people said they wanted these areas protected and available for future generations, said Wistowsky.
Although a majority of Canadians were willing to pay more to preserve the parks, he found the economic value placed on national parks differed slightly among provinces.
People in Ontario and Alberta were willing to contribute the most to preserving parks with an average of $57 whereas those surveyed in British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan would contribute the least with an average of $46.
Likewise the younger the respondent, the more money he or she was willing to pay. Twenty-year-olds would pay $58 whereas 80-year-olds would pay $47.
Despite these differences, an overwhelming majority of respondents supported the federal government using tax dollars to maintain and protect national parks, said Wistowsky.
About 70 per cent of respondents strongly supported the use of tax dollars to maintain the existing national park system.
"Knowing the value of national parks to Canadians and the factors that influence this value is important when it comes to making informed decisions about the management of these areas today and for future generations."
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Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement would destroy jobs in all provinces and regions
OTTAWA - If the Canadian federal government proceeds with
a free trade agreement with Korea as it has promised to do, the impact on
Canadian communities would be disastrous, according to a new study.
The study will be released by the Canadian Auto Workers union at the House of Commons Press Gallery on Wednesday.
The study, "Provincial Employment Effects of Canada-Korea Free Trade,"
finds the job loss would be most acute in Ontario and Quebec, with an expected
loss of approximately 17,400 jobs and 8,300 jobs respectively. Even resource
rich provinces like Alberta and British Columbia will be set to lose thousands
of jobs.
The study builds upon a report released last month, "Canada's
Deteriorating Automotive Trade Performance," which detailed the country's
growing automotive trade deficit.
The study will be launched at a press conference in coordination with an
all-party lobby effort, as CAW leaders, including CAW President Buzz Hargrove,
meet with Members of Parliament from across the country, demanding that they
recognize the economic damage a Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement could cause
and bring an end to Canada-Korea FTA talks.
Hargrove will be joined by Quebec Director Luc Desnoyers and concerned
elected officials Michael Harding, Mayor of the City of Woodstock and Co-chair
of the Ontario Mayors for Automotive Investment, Brian McMullan, Mayor of the
City of St. Catharines as well as Windsor City Councillor Ken Lewenza Jr.
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Study: Home ownership among young Canadians - 2006
According to a new study, in 2006, young adults in rural and small towns were more likely to be homeowners than young adults in Canada's three largest metropolitan areas.
The study, published today in Canadian Social Trends, points to housing costs, which are much higher in Canada's largest metropolitan areas, as the main reason for this gap. The relative scarcity of rental housing in less populated areas may also be a factor, it said.
In Canada, 6 out of every 10 young people aged 25 to 39 in Canada who did not live with their parents owned their own home in 2006, according to the study, which was based on data from the 2006 General Social Survey (GSS).
However, the proportion was highest (71%) among young people in this age group who lived in a rural area or in a small town.
In contrast, 54% of those living in the census metropolitan area of Vancouver and 53% of those living in Toronto owned their own home. The proportion fell to less than one-half (48%) among those living in Montréal.
Overall, three-quarters of young adults aged 25 to 39 who no longer lived with their parents reported in the GSS that owning their own home was very important to them.
However, several factors in the last few years may have had a negative impact on home ownership for young people. These include rising housing prices, particularly in large urban centres, their desire to stay in school longer, and their decision to delay various milestones in life, such as marriage.
Income: A major determining factor
Despite the impact on home ownership rates of various factors relating to individuals themselves, it was household characteristics that mattered most to a person's chances of being a homeowner.
Young adults were most likely to own their own home if they were married and had children, as well as if they had higher household incomes.
The study found that household income is one of the factors, if not the single factor, with the biggest impact on the likelihood of owning a home.
Holding the other factors such as age, highest level of schooling, living arrangements and place of residence constant, the odds of being a homeowner were 1.7 times higher for young adults with a household income of over $100,000 than for those with an income between $50,000 and $80,000.
This association is hardly surprising and reflects results of numerous earlier studies. Obviously, insufficient income represents the major obstacle to home ownership. This was quite apparent when it came to living in larger urban centres.
Just 22% of young adults reporting a household income of less than $30,000 per year were homeowners in 2006. On the other hand, 68% of those with a household income of $50,000 to $80,000 were homeowners, as were 82% of those with an income of $100,000 or more.
Location also made a significant difference. Two-fifths (40%) of young adults who had household incomes of under $30,000 a year but who lived in rural settings were homeowners. This was more than twice the proportion of only 16% among their counterparts who lived in one of Canada's six largest metropolitan areas.
Even for those young people with the highest household incomes ($80,000 or more a year), there was a difference, although not as great. The study found that 78% of these big city dwellers were homeowners, compared with 85% of those living in rural areas and small towns.
Home ownership rates vary with age, living arrangements, employment
The study found, not surprisingly, that home ownership rates increase directly with age, and are strongly associated with living arrangements and employment.
Only 38% of young people aged between 25 and 27 owned their own homes in 2006. This proportion rose to 63% among individuals aged 31 to 33, and 73% among those aged 37 to 39.
Even when all other factors that influence home ownership are held constant, the impact of age remains statistically significant. For example, the odds that people aged 37 to 39 would own their own home were 2.2 times higher than those for individuals aged 25 to 27.
Home ownership also varies strongly according to living arrangements. In 2006, 79% of married young adults who had children owned their own home. This proportion was only 40% among individuals living alone and 33% among lone parents.
GSS data show that even when the impact of income and other factors are held constant, young people with temporary jobs had 40% lower odds of owning their own home than people with permanent employment.
Few recent immigrants own their own home
GSS data show that the number of years spent in Canada since immigration is associated with the probability of being a homeowner.
Almost two-thirds (64%) of young adults born in Canada and no longer living with their parents were homeowners.
However, this was true of less than half (48%) of their counterparts who had immigrated to Canada five to nine years prior to the survey, and of only 20% of immigrants who had arrived in Canada sometime in the five years preceding the 2006 GSS.
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