3G/4G Penetration Still Small, But Growing

North America - According to figures reported by research firm In-Stat, just 11 per cent of all wireless subscriptions worldwide were 3G at the end of 2008. But this number is expected to grow to 30 per cent by the end of 2013.

While WiMAX has the potential to be an attractive option in developing countries and remote locations where fixed broadband networks are not yet available, In-Stat is not certain whether the technology can compete in locations that already have 3G cellular and fixed broadband networks readily available.

"Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are slowing the deployment rate," explains Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat Analyst. Schoolar pegs Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung as the "WiMAX equipment heavy weights", and Cisco, Huawei and ZTE as "ones to watch".

In-Stat expects most of the deployments through new live networks to be WiMAX and HSPA. The firm has seen a "significant slowdown" in contracts for WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment.

In Canada, CDMA cellular provider Telus Mobility just announced plans to invest $500 million in the province of British Columbia to create an advanced wireless and wireline broadband infrastructure. This will include a new network based on the latest version of the HSPA (High Speed Packet Access) technology, which is scheduled to launch both in BC as well as nationally by early 2010. The investment, says Telus, will help to ensure a "smooth transition to long term evolution (LTE) technology", a data standard within the upcoming 4G network.

One would expect the penetration of 3G and 4G networks to be much larger by now, and even experience more than triple growth over the next four years as new products are released and consumers upgrade handsets. But it's clearly a slow and lengthy process. Consumers will continue to utilize more data applications on their phones, and additional services will be hitting the market going forward, encouraging customers to grow these numbers even more.