Posted April 23, 2009
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Consumer Confidence

Confidence up, Canadians look to the future: survey

TORONTO - The latest results from TNS Canadian Facts' Consumer Confidence Index point to an improvement in Canadians' perceptions of the state of the economy. Not only is the overall Consumer Confidence Index up - 90.5 today compared to 83.7 last month, an 8 per cent rise - but all the other indices are up too.

"Clearly, one snapshot does not a trend make. But these results do suggest that despite the troubling economic news dominating headlines, average Canadians are sensing the end is in sight," said Dr. Michael Antecol, vice-president of TNS Canadian Facts and director of the marketing research firm's monthly tracking study.

While the Present Situation Index, which captures evaluations of the overall state of the current economic and employment situations, is up just over three points to 75.3, the Expectations Index and Buy Index posted dramatic gains.

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' estimation of the economy, household income and employment in the next six months, rose for the fourth consecutive month to 97.4 - an 11 per cent increase from last month's 87.4.

Likewise, the Buy Index, which gauges the degree to which people think the current period is a good time to make major purchases, has bounced back - to 103.9 from 95.3, a 9 per cent boost. The last time this Index was that high was in the second quarter of 2005.

"Any economic turnaround will need consumers to loosen their purse strings. It's an expectations game. These results suggest this might soon be in the offing. Consumers are saying now is a good time to make that major purchase while at the same time having fairly positive expectations about the future. It looks more and more like the ingredients for a consumer-led recovery," added Dr. Antecol.

Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians' attitudes about the economy each month and is part of a global study conducted by TNS in 18 countries. Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index. The Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm's national bi-weekly telephone omnibus service, TNS Express Telephone. A total of 1,015 nationally representative Canadian adults were interviewed between April 13 and 16, 2009. For a survey sample this size, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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