Posted February 20, 2009
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Leading indicators

The rate of decline of the composite index accelerated from 0.5% in December to 0.8% in January 2009.

Statscan - This was the largest and most widespread decrease since the index turned down in September. Among the 10 components, 6 fell, 1 was unchanged and 3 increased.

The housing index contracted by 7.0% in January, its largest monthly decline since June 1990. Both existing home sales and housing starts have fallen sharply since last October. Housing starts are almost 50% below their highs touched in the spring of 2008, with the largest losses in Western Canada.

Still, consumer spending accounted for two of the three components that expanded. Despite the slump in housing demand, purchases of furniture and appliances rose slowly. Sales of other durable goods grew 0.2%, and auto sales in January recovered some of their fourth-quarter losses.

The two indicators of manufacturing demand fell in unison, even before extensive shutdowns were implemented in the auto industry. The ratio of shipments to inventories declined again, as firms could not cut production as fast as sales were falling. New orders swung from an increase to a 3.6% decline as exports turned down. The US leading indicator fell for the 17th straight month.

The financial indicators remained divided. The Toronto stock market posted a fifth consecutive decline. However, the money supply (+1.5%) continued to expand.

© Copyright 2009/Exchange Morning Post/Exchange Business Communications Inc.
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