Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 4Q 2015 Results
Milwaukee - Strongest hiring plans again reported by employers in India and Taiwan. U.S. forecast remains upbeat, while opportunities for job seekers expected to remain weak in Brazil and Italy.
Employers in 36 of 42 countries and territories intend to add to their payrolls by varying margins during the October-December time frame. However, evidence of definitive fourth-quarter workforce gains remains patchy amid signs that the pace of recovery following the recession continues to be slow and protracted. Many employers continue to exercise caution and are refraining from aggressive hiring until they sense more meaningful indicators of a market upturn. Forecasts improve in a quarter-over-quarter comparison in 15 countries and territories, decline in 20 and are unchanged in seven. When compared year-over-year, forecasts improve in 16 countries, decline in 21, and are unchanged in five. Employers in India and Taiwan report the strongest hiring plans across the globe, while employer confidence in Japan is growing steadily with job seekers likely to benefit from the most optimistic forecast reported since Quarter 1 2008. Similarly, hiring intentions in the U.S. continue to improve, and the current outlook is the strongest reported since Quarter 4 2007. The weakest fourth-quarter hiring plans are reported in Brazil, Italy, France, Greece and Finland.
Additional fourth-quarter research findings include:
In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, workforce gains are expected by employers in 19 of 24 countries. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, opportunities for job seekers are expected to be stronger in seven countries and weaker in 12. When compared to Quarter 4 2014, employer confidence is stronger in 12 countries and weaker in nine. Furthermore, among those countries where payroll growth is forecast, expected gains are mostly modest with employer optimism apparently temperedat least in partby issues associated with the most recent Greek debt crisis. The region’s most active hiring pace is forecast in Romania, while Italian employers again report the region’s weakest year-end hiring plans.
Payrolls are expected to increase in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories. However, Outlooks are trending weaker and the hiring pace is expected to strengthen in only three of eight countries and territories quarter-over-quarter and improve in only one in a year-over-year comparison. Employers in India report the most optimistic forecast across the globe. Conversely, the region’s weakest forecast is reported by mainland Chinese employers where hiring activity dips to its weakest point since Quarter 3 2009, following quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declines in all regions and in most industry sectors.
Of the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas, positive Outlooks are reported in nine. Hiring confidence strengthens in five countries and declines in four when compared to the July-September time frame. In a year-over-year comparison, forecasts strengthen in only three countries and decline in six. U.S. employers report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring plans. In contrast, employers in Brazil anticipate the weakest hiring pace, with negative forecasts reported by employers in all but one industry sector and in all regions.