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____ Wednesday March 23, 2016 ____

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Terror

Republicans Seen as Stronger on Terrorism

Impact of Brussels-like Events on U.S. Politics

Washington, DC - Electorally speaking, terrorist attacks like the one in Brussels are more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats. Republicans historically have been seen as more credible on “terrorism” and “foreign policy”.

The March 2016 Ipsos/Reuters poll puts Republicans at a 7-point advantage on “the war on terror”.
Typically, after an attack, public concern about terrorism spikes as a priority among Americans (e.g. after Paris and San Bernardino).

However, this peaked salience has a fairly quick half-life of maybe a few months depending on the gravity and proximity to US soil.

We expect that “terrorism as a priority” will spike again as a result of the Brussels event but will most likely recede quickly as a concern, and thus have little impact on the US election.

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